AI Fears Are Fickle. Why Oracle Woes Present a Stock Market Opportunity and 5 Other Things to Know Today.
Dec 18, 2025 07:03:00 -0500 | #Markets #The Barron's Daily
Oracles are supposed to predict the future. But the stock market is in trouble if it’s relying on Larry Ellison’s technology company to forecast the fate of the artificial-intelligence boom. Oracle is the focus of AI fears but investors should take a wider view before deciding the trend is over.
AI stocks stumbled again Wednesday. The trigger was a report that talks between Oracle and alternative-asset manager Blue Owl Capital about a $10 billion data center had stalled and left the project in limbo. While it was hastily denied—Oracle insisted the project is on track —the market is ready to fly from AI at the slightest provocation. That’s doubly true for anything linked to Oracle and its dependence on ChatGPT developer OpenAI.
Doubts that OpenAI can come good on its $1.4 trillion commitments are understandable, even amid reports of backing from Amazon and a potential valuation of $750 billion. But abandoning AI plays on isolated reports can be costly—similar plunges were seen earlier this year on suggestions Microsoft had scaled back data-center spending, only to fade quickly.
Anyone who sold out of Micron Technology on such worries would be regretting it now, after its latest blockbuster results. Shares fell for five straight sessions in the lead-up to Wednesday’s report despite every indication soaring memory-chip prices would boost Micron’s results for several quarters. Hardware and power stocks continue to be standout beneficiaries of the AI boom.
Markets look to be overreacting in both directions when it comes to AI, which is still in its early stages. In a recent UBS survey, just 17% of organizations said they were implementing AI projects “at scale.” That suggests predictions of a new world of productivity in 2026 are overblown. But that was up from 11% in October last year, meaning there is growth and a runway for more.
Prophesying is difficult enough but making key decisions based on a single Oracle report makes it even harder. Investors shouldn’t put too much stock in the latest soothsayers predicting AI doom.
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Micron Stock Rises on Earnings Beat, Rising Memory Demand
Micron Technology stock surged after the chip company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue and strong guidance for the current quarter. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra anticipates business performance will “continue strengthening through fiscal 2026,” amid the artificial intelligence-driven demand for memory and storage.
- Micron is a leader in the markets for dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, chips used in desktop computers and servers, and for NAND flash memory chips found in smartphones and solid-state hard drives. It is a key supplier of high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, for AI servers.
- Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton on Tuesday raised his price target for Micron stock to $300, from $200, and reaffirmed his Buy rating. Average memory chip prices jumped 162% quarter over quarter, and demand remains robust amid tight supplies, “with no relief expected” in calendar year 2026.
- UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri noted that the pricing environment for DRAM and NAND has been stronger than he anticipated, and said customers could see double-digit sequential increases in average sales prices through next year as “undersupply” of the memory chips continues until early 2027, MarketWatch reported.
What’s Next: Micron’s second-quarter adjusted earnings forecast of $8.42 a share on revenue of $18.7 billion at the midpoint was way above analysts’ estimates for $4.78 EPS on revenue of $14.3 billion.
— Tae Kim and Janet H. Cho
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Trump Sees an Economic Boom Coming. He May Be Wrong.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday night extolled his economic record and promised a bright future for the U.S. in the year ahead. But the data don’t paint a rosy picture.
- “We are making America great again tonight,” Trump said in a roughly 20-minute address to the nation. “Our border is secure. Inflation has stopped. Wages are up. Prices are down…We’re poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen.”
- 2026 could be a make-or-break year for Trump’s economic promises. But it may be difficult for the U.S. economy to achieve the success he has forecast, given unemployment is rising and inflation remains elevated.
- Inflation remains one of the most concerning issues for American households, as prices for many goods and services including groceries have risen sharply since the Covid-19 pandemic. Trump said he is bringing prices down “very fast,” but inflation has been on the upswing rising since April.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% a year ago. Payroll growth has also slowed substantially in the past year with employers adding 64,000 jobs in November, compared with 261,000 a year ago.
What’s Next: The Trump administration is working to accelerate growth. Trump said Wednesday that he plans to announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair soon and he promised to roll out housing reform plans next year. The Republican party’s success in the midterm elections and thereafter may depend on whether the president can make the economy great again.
— Megan Leonhardt and George Glover
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CDC Stops Recommending Hepatitis B Vaccine for All Newborns
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on the recommendation of advisors appointed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, has dropped its longstanding recommendation that all newborns be vaccinated against hepatitis B.
- Acute hepatitis B rates in the U.S. have dropped sharply since 1991, when the CDC recommended universal vaccination at birth. Up to 90% of children infected with hepatitis B during infancy develop a lifelong infection, and 25% of them die prematurely of cirrhosis or liver cancer.
- Kennedy denied he was antivaccine during his Senate confirmation hearings. He also assured Sen. Bill Cassidy (R, La.) that he wouldn’t change the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee or other recommendations. He abruptly fired all 17 members in June. His new advisors recently voted to change decades-old guidance.
- The American Medical Association warned that rolling back the recommendation creates confusion and doubt about vaccines, reverses hard-won progress in preventing hepatitis B, and “will undoubtedly result in completely preventable illness and death.”
- The CDC still recommends a birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine for infants whose mothers have tested positive for hepatitis B, or whose mothers haven’t been tested. Babies who don’t get a dose at birth are advised to receive one after two months old under the new guidance.
What’s Next: Insurers will still cover hepatitis B shots for infants whose parents choose to have them vaccinated. CDC data show 76% of U.S. newborns received a birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccines in 2019. The complete hepatitis B vaccine series usually consists of three doses.
— Josh Nathan-Kazis and Janet H. Cho
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Dalio, BlackRock Join Dell in Donations to Trump Accounts for Children
Gifts to Trump accounts—government savings accounts created by tax and spending legislation earlier this year—are gaining momentum among billionaires and corporate America.
- Hedge fund founder Ray Dalio and his wife Barbara announced they will put $250 into the Trump accounts of about 300,000 children in their home state of Connecticut—a total of about $75 million.
- BlackRock announced that it would offer to match the U.S. government’s contribution of $1,000 into these tax-deferred accounts for its eligible U.S. employees with children born between Jan. 1, 2025, and the end of 2028.
- Charter Communications, BNY, and others have also pledged to match the government’s contribution for their employees.
What’s Next: These headlines follow the Dell family’s donations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on philanthropists throughout the country to follow the Dalios’ lead in adopting a state.
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Republicans Break Ranks on Obamacare Subsidies as Affordability Worries Deepen
A group of Republican lawmakers crossed the aisle to join with their Democratic colleagues in forcing a vote on extending healthcare subsidies set to expire on New Year’s Eve.
- The move offers a glimmer of hope for lowering monthly premiums for the more than 20 million who rely on the subsidies for plans enacted as part of President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act.
- Without the extensions, monthly costs are expected to more than double on average and four million fewer people would enroll in the plans.
- It also shows cracks in the Republican coalition as pressure mounts to address rising costs ahead of next year’s critical midterm elections.
What’s Next: A full floor vote in the House is unlikely to happen before early January. If that measure passes, it would put pressure on the Senate to act as well.
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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner