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Apple Stock Gets a New Buy Rating. How the iPhone 17 Can Help Shares Climb 20%.

Oct 01, 2025 11:04:00 -0400 by Mackenzie Tatananni | #Technology #Street Notes

Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg initiated coverage on Apple stock with a Buy rating and $310 price target. (Getty Images)

Key Points

The launch of Apple’s iPhone 17 is shaping up to be a smashing success. Analysts are paying attention.

Seaport Research Partners analyst Jay Goldberg initiated coverage on Apple in a note published Wednesday, rating the stock at Buy with a $310 price target. That suggests about 20% upside from the roughly $255 level where shares were trading on Wednesday.

Goldberg noted that one of the company’s biggest strengths is its “sticky” business. “Once a user has an iPhone, they are much more likely to buy other Apple offerings,” he said.

Around 1.4 billion people around the world own an iPhone, but device sales have been flat to down over the past three years, signaling that the company is no longer in a phase of rapid growth. However, “Apple has gotten much better at monetizing its user base,” Goldberg continued. The 1.4 billion figure is “attached to further 1 billion other Apple devices.”

Services, a business segment associated with digital subscriptions, is now the company’s second-largest, driven by offerings such as Apple Music and AppleCare. The company has also steadily raised prices across the iPhone line, with its new low-end model, the iPhone Air, starting at $999.

In Goldberg’s view, Apple’s valuation looks compelling ahead of what’s shaping up to be a “solid upgrade cycle this year,” and the possible advent of a foldable phone model next year.

However, there are two major swing factors. Goldberg describes them as “existential questions for the company, playing out over the next few years.”

Apple is struggling to find its artificial-intelligence strategy, and the delayed rollout of its enhanced Siri chatbot has been a persistent sticking point for investors. “If consumers find that they have better access to AI on other platforms, it could erode Apple’s core iPhone base which would lead to a serious deterioration of earnings,” Goldberg said.

That is not to mention risks abroad. The company is heavily reliant on its Chinese manufacturing base, the product of “hundreds of billions of dollars” invested over the past few decades. “Apple needs to walk a balancing act – diversifying its manufacturing outside of the PRC, without losing access to the PRC market,” Goldberg wrote. “They have begun this process, but it will take a long time.”

Until then, the company will be caught in the crosswinds of trade tensions and “considerable geopolitical risk in the form of tariffs and PRC bans,” the analyst added. Apple appears to have avoided the worst-case scenario for tariffs, with the iPhone exempted from reciprocal levies. However, the situation remains in flux.

For now, analysts are seeing strong demand signals for the latest iPhone lineup. J.P. Morgan polled consumers to gauge their interest in buying a new iPhone or Apple Watch following their rollout last month.

The firm is expecting a “strong and robust cycle for the iPhone 17 Series relative to the iPhone 16 Series, led by upgraders,” as interest from people switching from other phone manufacturers “is modestly softer compared to the prior year,” analysts wrote.

So-called upgraders and switchers alike are showing a preference for pricier models compared with last year, fueled by a desire for faster performance, better aesthetics, and a new camera, J.P. Morgan noted.

One feature that receives a lot of attention on Wall Street was missing from the list. “AI features still do not appear to be a key factor in terms of driving consumer purchases, and slipped to seventh position in terms of reasons relative to sixth a year ago,” analysts observed. J.P. Morgan rates Apple stock at Overweight with a $280 price target.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com