Apple Stock Is on a Roll. But This Data Show iPhone 17 Sales Losing Momentum.

Apple CEO Tim Cook unveiled the iPhone 17 range on Sept. 9. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Apple shares have risen 10% over the past month, trading at $255.71 in premarket, following strong iPhone 17 order indications.
• Jefferies analysts note a cooling in iPhone 17 sales momentum, with U.S. lead times being the weakest across six tracked markets.
• J.P. Morgan analysts observe largely stable iPhone 17 lead times, with overall demand tracking ahead of the iPhone 16 series.

Apple shares have been gaining in recent weeks on the back of seeming strength in iPhone 17 orders but Wall Street analysts see a mixed picture ahead.

Apple stock has bounced back from its lows below $230, which it hit amid disappointment at the iPhone 17 launch event earlier this month. The move upward has been helped by apparently healthy demand for the latest devices.

Apple shares are up 10% over the past month and were gaining 0.1% to $255.71 in premarket trading. However, analysts at Jefferies warn that early strength in iPhone 17 orders could now be fading.

“While [the] iPhone 17 series’ initial sales momentum was strong, our tracking shows it has been cooling off, as delivery lead time has been generally falling,” wrote Jefferies analyst Edison Lee in a research note on Sunday. “In particular, the US remains the weakest market among the six we track.”

Lead times refer to the period between when a customer places an order and receives it. Analysts use it as a gauge of demand, with longer lead times indicating a higher number of orders. Jefferies tracks lead times in the U.S., China, Hong Kong, Germany, the U.K., and Japan.

“Our tracking of lead time shows the US as the weakest market among the six we track, across all four model variants. This is consistent with our view that many consumers bought a new iPhone in the June quarter due to tariff concerns,” Lee wrote.

Lee has a Hold rating and $205.82 target price on Apple stock, suggesting the potential for nearly a 20% fall.

However, not all analysts are so pessimistic about demand for the iPhone 17. J.P. Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee said lead times look to be largely stable in the third week of tracking device orders, with the exception of weaker signs for the ultrathin Air model.

“Across all the regions we track, trends were largely similar, including largely stable lead times for most of the line-up except lead time moderation for iPhone Air, all of which taken together solidifies our view that in aggregate demand for iPhone 17 series is tracking ahead of iPhone 16,” Chatterjee wrote in a research note on Sunday.

The J.P. Morgan analysy noted that the U.S. accounts for around 34% of iPhone shipments, followed by China at 19%.

Chatterjee has an Overweight rating on Apple stock.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com