Why Apple’s New iPhone Could Be a Smashing Success—and Why Its Stock Could Hit $290

Apple’s iPhone 17 series was unveiled during a product showcase on Sept. 9. (Getty Images)

Key Points

About This Summary

• Evercore ISI’s survey indicates a “better-than-expected iPhone refresh cycle.”
• Fifty-six percent of customers plan to buy iPhone 17 Pro or Pro Max models, compared to an average of 50% for previous Pro versions, according to Evercore.
• Interest in the new iPhone Air is lower than expected at 9%, with concerns about camera design and battery life.

Just one week has passed since Apple’s new iPhone lineup became availa b le worldwide, and insights into customer demand already are emerging.

Evercore ISI’s annual survey of nearly 4,000 customers in the U.S. pointed to the start of what the firm called in a note Friday a “better-than-expected iPhone refresh cycle.”

The firm reiterated an Outperform rating on Apple stock while hiking its price target to $290 from $260. Shares were down 0.8% at $254.80 on Friday while the S&P 500 rose slightly and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.

Evercore analysts noted that the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max models, which are billed as premium versions of the standard iPhone, “continue to resonate with customers,” with 56% of respondents planning to buy one of the versions versus an average of 50%.

The trend only becomes more pronounced compared to demand for the ultra-thin iPhone Air, which debuted this month. Evercore’s survey indicated lower-than-expected interest in the new model, with just 9% of respondents saying they planned to buy an Air, expressing skepticism about the camera design and battery life.

“We think Apple’s core strength remains concentrated in the Pro tiers, while the iPhone 17 appears to have exceeded initial expectations,” the firm concluded, citing reports of strong first week sales from T-Mobile .

Apple’s focus on the basic hardware of its new devices appeared to spur refresh interest, the firm contended, with an uptick in respondents citing the new camera, battery, and screen while artificial-intelligence features saw a notable decline. “This is a key difference that should enable durability as last year the interest was driven by Apple Intelligence that eventually disappointed,” analysts wrote.

Observations were in line with what other firms have deduced. Citi Research analysts pointed to similar demand signals in a note on Sept. 12, the day the iPhone 17 series became available for preorder.

“Delivery time is still the longest for Pro Max models, followed by Pro, showing continued trend of premiumization,” analysts said at the time, citing a strategy in which a business emphasizes a product’s purportedly superior quality to sell it at a higher price.

Despite the novelty of the iPhone Air, consumers show a clear preference for the Pro models, with Citi writing that the former was “the least popular model, which is expected given relatively high price point, small battery and fewer cameras.”

Wall Street remains largely bullish on shares of the iPhone maker. Of 50 firms tracked by FactSet, 30 rate Apple at Buy or the equivalent. Eighteen rate the stock at Hold, and two at Sell.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com