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Berkshire Stock Falls Nearly 1%. It Got a Rare Sell Recommendation.

Oct 27, 2025 12:41:00 -0400 by Andrew Bary | #Warren Buffett #Street Notes

Berkshire Hathaway stock is up about 7% this year. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

Key Points

Berkshire Hathaway stock is down nearly 1% Monday in the wake of receiving the equivalent of a sell recommendation from KBW analyst Meyer Shields, who cited several earnings headwinds for the conglomerate headed by Warren Buffett.

In a client note published early Monday, Shields cut his rating on Berkshire to Underperform from Market Perform and reduced his price target on the Class A shares to $700,000 from $740,000. The new price target is 22 times the firm’s updated estimates for 2026 earnings.

The rare sell recommendation is weighing on Berkshire stock. The Class A shares are down 0.9% to $732,244 on Monday, while the Class B stock also is off 0.9% to $487.77.

Berkshire stock continues to lag behind the overall market, continuing a trend since the Berkshire annual meeting in May when Buffett surprised shareholders by saying he would step down as CEO at year-end 2025 while remaining chairman.

Berkshire stock is now up about 7% in 2025, roughly 10 percentage points behind the S&P 500 index . On May 2, the day before the annual meeting, Berkshire was more than 20 percentage points ahead of the index as the Class A shares hit a record of $812,000.

“Many things are moving in the wrong direction,” Shields wrote.

“We believe GEICO’s likely underwriting margin peak, declining property catastrophe reinsurance rates, lower short-term interest rates, tariff-related pressure on the rails, and the risk of fading alternative energy tax credits will drive underperformance over the next 12 months,” he wrote.

Geico, Berkshire’s big auto insurance unit, has had stellar underwriting profit margins in recent quarters of more than 15%, against a more normal level of closer to 5%.

Shields slightly raised his 2025 earnings estimate on the Class A shares to $31,750 from $31,725 while reducing his 2026 and 2027 estimates to $31,750 and $33,350, respectively, from $32,430 and $34,430.

He came up with a sum-of-the-parts valuation on Berkshire of around $700,000 a share.

Berkshire’s big property and casualty insurance business is facing a good news/bad news situation as light hurricane activity this year (the season ends in November) is boosting near-term results but pressuring property catastrophe reinsurance pricing.

He also cited falling short-term rates, which should damp the investment income on Berkshire’s more than $300 billion in cash and equivalents that are invested mostly in U.S. Treasury bills.

Shields also cited Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which accelerates the phase out of tax credits for clean energy projects, “potentially undermining Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s future renewable energy projects’ net profits.”

Another sticking point for Shields: The insurance group’s “historically unique succession risk.”

Shields is a veteran insurance analyst and is among the relatively few analysts covering Berkshire. The company’s complexity is daunting for many analysts, and Berkshire doesn’t make things easier for analysts because it doesn’t meet with them.

Of seven analysts tracked by FactSet, four rate Berkshire’s Class A shares Hold and two rate them Buy. Shields is the only analyst who has a Sell rating.

Barron’s named Berkshire Hathaway a stock pick in July, saying that investors could follow the billionaire’s own advice and buy when others are fearful.

Corrections & Amplifications: Berkshire Hathaway stock is 10 percentage points behind the S&P 500 this year. A previous version of this article incorrectly said it was ahead of the index.

Write to Andrew Bary at andrew.bary@barrons.com and Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com