Bitcoin Faces a New ‘Crypto Winter’ in 2026

Bitcoin hit a record high above $125,000 in early October and has fallen more than 30% since then. (Dreamstime)

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s price rose less than 1% to $87,850, remaining below $90,000 despite bullish crypto trader bets.
• Bitcoin has fallen over 30% since its October record high of $125,000, raising concerns of a new ‘crypto winter’.
• Cantor analysts predict sluggish trading and further price drag for Bitcoin in the year ahead, citing a potential 365-day decline.

Winter is coming for Bitcoin.

The price of Bitcoin rose 1% over the past 24 hours to $87,850. The largest digital asset by market value has hovered below the $90,000 for weeks now, lagging despite bullish bets from crypto traders while stocks and the S&P 500 have rallied alongside assets like gold and silver.

“Bitcoin is in a falling trend channel in the short term. This shows that investors over time have sold at lower prices to get out … and indicates negative development,” wrote investing platform Investtech based on an analysis of technical market factors. “[Bitcoin] is between support at points $86,000 and resistance at points $89,000.”

Bitcoin hit a record high above $125,000 in early October and has fallen more than 30% since then. Weeks of lackluster price action at relatively depressed levels have raised the prospect of a new “crypto winter” —a period between a Bitcoin record high and cycle trough, of which there have been four such periods since 2011.

“Crypto appears to be having its first down year since 2022 over a combination of fears over the 4-year Bitcoin cycle and macro environment,” a team at Cantor, the financial services giant, wrote in research published this week.

While Cantor is bullish about the long-term outlook for Bitcoin, including continued institutional adoption of digital assets and regulatory clarity, they see sluggish trading in the year ahead—and a further drag for prices.

“Fears about crypto winter can itself start a crypto winter. With that being said, if we are in a crypto winter, we are ~85 days into a peak-to-trough decline that typically last 365 days,” wrote the team at Cantor. “With marginal buyers scared off (why step in so early in cycle), we believe Bitcoin could be weak for the next few months.”

Beyond Bitcoin, Ether —the second-largest crypto—gained 1.3% to near $3,000. Smaller tokens or altcoins were more muted, with Solana rising less than 1% and Dogecoin up 0.1%. XRP was up 0.8% though money continued to surge into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the token issued by Ripple, with inflows seen consistently through December to bring assets in funds above $1 billion.

Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@barrons.com