Bitcoin Price Jumps. What Cryptos Need for a Sustained Rally.

Bitcoin has been volatile in recent weeks but unable to mount a sustained comeback. (AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Bitcoin traded at $92,018, up more than 3% over 24 hours, but remains 27% below its October record high of over $126,000.
• Markets anticipate an 87% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut by a quarter-point, which could benefit cryptocurrencies.
• A significant portion of Bitcoin is held at a loss, leading to selling pressure between $96,000 and $100,000, hindering sustained recovery.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were jumping early Monday as digital assets looked to mount another rebound ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of the year.

Bitcoin was trading at $92,018 early in the day, up more than 3% over the past 24 hours after slipping below $88,000 at one point on Sunday. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has struggled to move above the $94,000 level despite getting close on several occasions in recent weeks. It remains 27% off its record high above $126,000 reached in October.

Ethereum was up 4% at $3,158, while popular altcoin XRP rose 3.4% to $2.10.

A Fed rate cut could help keep the momentum going. Cryptocurrencies typically get a boost from lower borrowing costs as it makes them more attractive relative to lower-yielding assets. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance the central bank cuts interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday.

But that assumption has been baked in for a while and hasn’t sparked a sustained crypto comeback yet.

However, the path for Bitcoin may be a bit more complicated than that.

“A large share of Bitcoin is currently held at a loss, so each move toward $96,000-$100,000 meets selling from holders who want to exit at break-even,” said Arthur Azizov, founder of B2 Ventures.

Those dynamics go some way to explaining the disconnect between the stock market and cryptos, he added. The S&P 500 is up 17% in 2025, while Bitcoin is down around 1.4%.

“I see an idling, maybe even stagnating market. Only a strong move above $100,000 could flip the script, restore confidence, and open the way toward $120,000+ level,” he said. But if that fails, he sees another pullback—this time to around $82,000 to $88,000.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com