Boeing Just Received Good 737 MAX News. The Stock Should React Well.

Boeing 737 Max fuselages are seen on railcars in Seattle, Washington. Through Friday trading, Boeing stock was up 20% year to date. (Photo by David Ryder/Getty Images)

Key Points

• The Federal Aviation Administration increased Boeing’s 737 MAX production cap from 38 to 42 jets per month.
• The previous cap was imposed after a door plug incident on a 737 MAX 9 jet in Jan. 2024.
• Boeing’s stock has gained 20% in 2025 and 37% over the past 12 months, with expected profit in 2026.

Boeing’s turnaround story hit another milestone on Friday. Investors should show their appreciation on Monday.

Friday evening, the Federal Aviation Administration gave Boeing the go-ahead to produce up to 42 Boeing 737 MAX jets a month, from the prior cap of 38 per month.

The cap was put in place after an emergency door plug blew out of a 737 MAX 9 jet operated by Alaska Air on Jan. 5, 2024. The incident was caused by quality and manufacturing issues that put Boeing’s production processes under a microscope.

Lifting the cap shows progress and confidence from Boeing’s regulator that things are moving in the right direction.

“Our team has followed a disciplined rate readiness process guided by our Safety Management System and tracked by key performance indicators that were agreed upon with the FAA,” said the company in an emailed statement to Barron’s. “We remain committed to implementing our Safety and Quality Plan and working with our suppliers to increase production in a disciplined manner. We appreciate the work by our team, our suppliers, and the FAA to ensure we are prepared to increase production with safety and quality at the forefront.”

Producing—and then delivering—more jets will help Boeing make money in 2026. The company hasn’t produced a full-year profit since 2018, and isn’t expected to report a profit in 2025, either. Boeing delivered 387 MAX jets in 2023, before the door plug incident. It delivered 260 MAX jets in 2024.

Boeing is expected to deliver about 450 MAX jets in 2025, rising to 530 in 2026 and more than 600 in 2027, according to analyst estimates aggregated by FactSet.

Investors should be happy with the higher cap, which should provide a tailwind to the stock on Monday. Exactly how big a tailwind is hard to say. Investors were ready for the production rate increase to be announced soon. It essentially came when it was expected. Still, after years of losses, staying on schedule is a positive.

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Boeing Co.Source: FactSet

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1737 MAX 9 Door​Plug Incident, ​Jan. 6, 2024Nov. 2023'24'25120140160180200220240260$280

Through Friday trading, Boeing stock has gained 20% in 2025 and climbed 37% higher over the past 12 months.

Shares were roughly $250 a share before the door plug blowout in Jan. 2024. Shares were north of $440 a piece before the second tragic 737 MAX crash in March 2019, which grounded the jet worldwide until late 2020.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com