China Hasn’t Ordered Planes From Boeing in Awhile. That Could Soon Change, Report Says.

China will need an estimated 8,800-plus planes over the next 20 years to meet rising demand for air travel, according to Boeing’s commercial- market outlook (Hector Retamal / AFP / via Getty Images)

Boeing might be close to selling a boatload of jets in China, a vital commercial aerospace market that hasn’t ordered planes from the company in a while.

Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Boeing was close to an order for 500 jets. That is a big number in commercial aerospace. Qatar Airways made waves in May with an order for up to 210 wide-body jets, and Boeing’s backlog of orders is about 6,500 planes.

Boeing declined to comment on the report.

Shares of the jet maker traded as high as $227.58, but gave up early gains, leaving shares off 0.5% on the day at $224.46, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

China will need an estimated 8,800-plus planes over the next 20 years to meet rising demand for air travel, according to Boeing’s commercial- market outlook. About 60% of that demand would come from airlines expanding their fleets, while airlines replacing older jets with more fuel-efficient models would account for the rest.

Boeing certainly wants its fair share of that business, but China hasn’t ordered many planes from Boeing lately. Although there have been some orders from leasing companies and for cargo planes, a Chinese airline hasn’t ordered a non-freighter from Boeing since 2017.

Reasons for that include trade tensions with the U.S., Boeing’s problems with the 737 MAX jet, and China’s long recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. All that has left China underrepresented in Boeing’s order book.

Including Hong Kong, there are about 160 China-bound jets in Boeing’s backlog, according to Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard. That is roughly 3% of Boeing’s official backlog, about half the level at Airbus, Stallard says.

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu pointed out on Thursday that China’s aircraft startup COMAC has amassed about 1,200 orders for jets. Essentially all those are for the Chinese market and most of those are for COMAC’s smaller regional jet. Kahyaoglu calculates that China currently accounts for just 10% of global aircraft backlogs for larger jets, down from almost 25% between 2010 and 2019. It’s about time for China to order.

Both companies have “undisclosed” customers in their backlog. Some of those planes would likely find their way to China.

Coming into Thursday trading, Boeing’s stock was up about 27% this year. Investors have been encouraged by higher production and improved financial performance in recent quarters.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com