Carnival Earnings Beat Is a Relief for Cruise Stocks

Carnival earnings hit land on Friday after a volatile period for cruise stocks into the end of 2025. (Photograph by Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Carnival exceeds fourth-quarter earnings expectations with adjusted earnings of 34 cents a share on record revenue of $6.3 billion.
• The company’s full-year 2026 earnings per share guidance of $2.48 surpasses the consensus estimate of $2.44.
• Following the positive report, Carnival’s stock rises as do shares of Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.

Carnival beat quarterly earnings expectations and issued strong 2026 guidance Friday. It was more than enough to send cruise stocks higher.

The cruise operator reported adjusted earnings of 34 cents a share on revenue of $6.3 billion—a fourth-quarter record—in the three months to Nov. 30. Analysts were expecting profit of 24 cents a share on revenue of $6.4 billion.

Carnival’s first quarter profit guidance was a touch below Wall Street’s expectations, but its full-year outlook for $2.48 a share was higher than the $2.44 consensus.

Cruise stocks have been volatile recently amid concerns about oversupply in the Caribbean market. The sector needed steady earnings and guidance from Carnival to move past the turbulence—and that’s what it got.

Carnival jumped 8.2% on Friday, while Royal Caribbean was up 2.9% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings rose 5.8%.

As Carnival’s fiscal fourth quarter ends a month earlier than Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line, the company’s earnings are often key for an up-to-date reading on the health of the cruise industry.

Investors needed the clarity—heading into Friday’s trading the big three cruise operators were all down roughly 2% to 12% since the beginning of October, though they are all up sharply this month.

“Flat out nervous. That would be the best phrase we can use to describe how we feel heading into Carnival’s first crack at fiscal year 2026 guidance,” Stifel research analyst Steven Wieczynski said in a note last week.

Wall Street didn’t need to be nervous after all. Carnival’s full-year guidance came in above expectations.

And there was more good news for investors. CEO Josh Weinstein said Carnival has achieved record booking volumes for 2026 and 2027 over the past three months, adding that bookings are currently at “historical high prices” in both North America and Europe.

The Caribbean market has been an area of concern. Goldman Sachs analysts downgraded Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to Neutral from Buy last week, citing the company’s exposure to the Caribbean market. They kept a Buy rating on Royal Caribbean but warned of “near-term weakness” ahead.

But the bank’s analysts, led by Lizzie Dove, said Carnival appears to be the least affected of the big three by the pressure in the Caribbean, citing its reduced exposure to the region. They have a Buy rating on the stock.

That probably means Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Lines earnings early next year present tougher tests for the cruise industry.

But Carnival has calmed the waters for now.

Write to Callum Keown at callum.keown@dowjones.com