Chip Stocks Keep Charging Higher. What the Charts Say About Nvidia, Broadcom, Applied Materials

NVIDIA components are displayed at the GTC Paris NVIDIA at the VivaTech technology startups and innovation fair at the Paris Expo Porte de Versailles, in Paris on June 12, 2025. (THOMAS SAMSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has risen 33% year to date, surpassing the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF’s returns.
• Nvidia has gained 32% this year, consolidating after a significant surge and remaining near its all-time high.
• Broadcom is up 44% year to date, experiencing a recent constructive pullback that may set up a year-end rally.

Inside the technology industry are two major sub sectors: semiconductors and software. Semis continue to lead. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is up 33% year to date, more than doubling returns of the .

On the weekly chart, the semiconductor ETF has struggled with overhead resistance at the very round $300 number, which acted as a ceiling in August and early September. Now with a decisive breakout above that level, prior resistance is likely a floor. The move followed a bullish double-bottom breakout in late June, and the ETF is now carving a path toward the $365 level by early 2026. It has demonstrated remarkable consistency, avoiding any losing streak longer than three weeks over the past 18 months. Let’s examine three semiconductor stocks that stand to benefit.

The SMH ETF is trading confidently above very round 300 number.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF was trading at $325.39 Monday.

Nvidia has gained 32% year to date. After an extraordinary 17% surge the week ending April 11, following a 16-out-of-18 week winning streak that saw the stock double in price, shares have entered a constructive consolidation phase. Despite closing lower five of the last seven weeks, the stock remains just 1% below its all-time high and continues to hold above its 21-day exponential moving average. A double-bottom-with-handle pattern is forming, with a potential breakout trigger at $184.65. Adding to the long case is the completion of a bullish island reversal pattern, started by a small gap down on Sept. 2 and a gap up on Sept. 10. Nvidia could gravitate toward the very round $200 level by mid fourth quarter. Stay bullish above $170.

Nvidia traded at $182.75 Monday.

Nvidia stock is poised for a year-end rally after nice sideways digestion.

Broadcom is up 44% year to date and offers a modest dividend yield of 0.7%. Last week, it notched its first back-to-back weekly declines in six months, and now trades 11% below its 52-week high. While it has slipped in eight of the last 12 sessions, the recent weakness appears constructive, setting up an entry point as it nears its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since breaking out of a bull flag. That move was delivered with a strong 9% earnings-driven gap on Sept. 5. A retest of the 50-day SMA would also bring the stock close to filling the gap from the Sept. 4 session. The current pullback began with a dark cloud cover pattern on Sept. 11. Broadcom now looks positioned for a potential year-end rally, with a move toward the very round $400 level in play. Enter at $320 and use a stop of $290.

Broadcom traded at $334.67 Monday.

Broadcom is likely to fill a key gap before potentially resuming uptrend.

Applied Materials is up 25% year to date and offers a dividend yield of 0.9%. The stock currently trades about 5% below its 52-week high but has staged a strong recovery. This follows a sharp correction that began with a rare gravestone doji candle on the weekly chart for the period ending July 12, 2024. Shares have surged more than 20% over the last two weeks alone, rising 7% last week and 13% the week prior, an unusually strong move for a mega-cap name. Both weekly candles closed at highs for the weekly range and the very round $200 number has proven important, serving as a neckline in a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders formation. That level was rejected in January and July, but was cleared last week. Former resistance should now turn into support. Look for a move to the $275 level in the first quarter. The bullish setup remains intact as long as the stock holds above $185.

Applied Materials traded at $208.60 Monday.

AMAT has shown constructive action, taking out a round number that provided resistance.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com