Why Chipotle Stock Hit Is Hitting a 52-Week Low—and Why There’s Still Hope

Chipotle needs to keep its customers coming back for more.. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Chipotle Mexican Grill hit a 52-week low on Tuesday as the long-term winner continues to get hit by short-term problems that continue to linger.

There’s nothing wrong with Chipotle’s past performance. The stock has gained 66% over the past three years, outpacing the S&P 500 ’s 61% gain, as the company consistently increased its sales and earnings, establishing itself as one of the best fast-casual restaurant operators in the U.S.

But 2025 hasn’t been Chipotle’s year. The stock slipped 1.1% to $44.38 on Thursday, a new 52-week low, as shares continues to sell off following last week’s earnings report. Shares continued slipping on Wednesday, dropping anothe 0.9% to $43.99 in early trading, putting it on track to cloise at another 52-week low. Chipotle stock is down 27% this year.

Investors’ disappointment is understandable. Chipotle reported earnings of 33 cents a share, in line with estimates, but sales of $3.06 billion missed expectations for $3.11 billion. What’s more, same-store sales—those at restaurants that had been open for at least 13 months—dipped 4% from the same period one year ago, worse than expectations for a 2.9% drop.

Chipotle managed costs well enough to meet bottom line estimates, but the market needs to see sales growth reaccelerate in order to have full confidence that the company can increase its earnings aggressively for the long term. It’s the same-store sales that worry investors because when that metric declines it often means consumers are souring on the brand. And it’s that measure that will likely remain in the spotlight in the quarters ahead.

“We expect the primary debate to remain centered on the same-store-sales outlook, with bulls optimistic in low single digit [percentage growth] same-store-sales in then second half and mid- single digits same-store-sales in 2026,” writes Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman.

That’s what Chipotle expects too. CEO Scott Boatwright said on the earnings call he remains confident in the company’s ability to achieve low-single digit same-store-sales growth, emphasizing Chipotle’s comparable sales increased in July from a year earlier. Management also highlighted recent strength in newer meat offerings such as honey chicken. While the July trend wasn’t enough to lift the stock after earnings, it could make all the difference on coming earnings reports.

One month doesn’t make a trend, but if Chipotle shows accelerating growth for the remainder of the year, the stock could rise. Analysts expect total revenue to grow by nearly 10% in the second half year over year, with revenue topping $3 billion in both the third and fourth quarters. That would be driven by just under 3% same-store-sales growth, as well as continued store expansion.

It’s the kind of sales that can boost profits as long as costs such as salaries and marketing don’t ballon. Management could then use its over $2 billion in annual free cash flow—and growing—to continue to buy back shares, bringing earnings-per-share up even further. Analysts forecast 19% annual earnings growth through 2028. That would be the recipe for a higher stock price.

But same-store-sales growth is the missing ingredient. Keep your eyes peeled for Chipotle’s third quarter report in October so see if Chipotle can get the mix right.

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com