How Cleveland-Cliffs Could Move the Needle for Metals ETF

The Cleveland Cliffs Cleveland Works steel mill. (Dustin Franz/Bloomberg)

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF, which has heavy exposure to steel, has already gained more than 36% this year. It is riding a 15-week winning streak.

Its top holding MP Materials has helped fuel the rally with back-to-back weekly gains exceeding 40%. That isn’t a typo: It is a measure of investors’ enthusiasm about the idea of a U.S. company producing rare-earth metals, with support from the Department of Defense.

Since breaking above a double bottom pivot on May 13, the exchange-traded fund, which trades with the ticker XME, has continued to show strong technical performance. This fund could be a great way to gain exposure for market participants looking for commodities as its component companies report their results in the coming days.

Cleveland-Cliffs , the second-largest holding in the ETF, kicked things off Monday morning with a report that was met with early positive price action.

A decisive move above the important $10 level, which would lift the stock out of single-digit status and through its 200-day moving average, would be a bullish technical signal. Shares were at $10.28 in morning trading.

A close above the 200-day simple moving average of $9.85 could pave the way for continued momentum, allowing the stock to potentially target the $12.50 area from February sometime in August.

Nucor, once a top performer in the steel sector, appears poised to reclaim leadership after sliding from $200 to $100 over the year through April. Now, it is approaching an important technical level. The stock has advanced seven of the past eight weeks, and in seven of those, it closed at its weekly high or in the upper half of the weekly range, an indication of institutional demand.

A breakout above the bull flag pivot of $143 could trigger a measured move toward $170, effectively invalidating any concerns about a double top near the February peak. Shares were at $143.69 on Monday morning.

The stock found support at the round $100 level in April. The steel maker will report earnings July 28 after the close. The announcement is likely to be closely watched because Nucor is often viewed as a barometer of U.S. manufacturing demand.

Steel peer Reliance is outperforming Cleveland-Cliffs in 2025, up 25% YTD and offering a dividend yield north of 1%, makes it an appealing option for investors seeking both growth and income.

The technical picture is strong. The weekly chart shows a breakout above a double bottom pivot at $326.97 last week; shares hit a 52-week high in the process. The stock was at $339.34 in morning trading.

Don’t be surprised if the stock pushes toward the significant $400 level by year end. Reliance’s earnings are scheduled to be released after the close on Wednesday.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com