Coffee Rally Sparks Stock Moves. What the Charts of Keurig Dr Pepper, Starbucks, Dutch Bros Say.

Keurig Dr Pepper’s rally may provide insight into other coffee-linked stocks. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Coffee prices advanced 40% in August and formed a bullish ascending triangle. A move above $4.25/pound could lead to $5.75 by late 2026.
• Keurig Dr. Pepper’s stock jumped 7% after earnings, ending a five-week losing streak. It has potential to reach $35 by early 2026.
• Starbucks stock, down 5% in 2025, is showing signs of recovery, recapturing its 21-day exponential moving average, with a potential to reach $100 by early 2026.

Coffee is attracting attention as it consolidates after a 40% advance this August. Futures prices have now carved out a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern, and a move above $4.25/pound in the near term could see a push toward $5.75 in the latter half of 2026.

A breakout would be very impressive as the $4.25 level created pesky resistance early this year and again in September. Coffee could also get a jolt, pun intended, from strong seasonality factors: in the last five years, November was the strongest month of the year, gaining an average of 14%. Let’s take a peek at how some stocks may be affected going forward.

Coffee was trading around $4 Monday.

Coffee prices are trading just above the $4 area which has provided resistance this year.

Keurig Dr Pepper may provide insight into other coffee stocks performance heading into year-end, as it reported earnings before today’s open. The stock jumped 7% early in the session, which, if sustained, would mark its largest single-day percentage gain since March 19, 2020.

On the weekly chart, the first week of October produced a bullish harami candle, ending a five-week losing streak that began with a break below a cup base, highlighting how false moves are often followed by sharp reversals. The following week recorded a doji candle, suggesting selling pressure was abating. This set the stage for the 8.5% surge in the week ending Oct. 17, driven by the company raising its annual sales forecasts. I see potential for the stock to reach $35 by early 2026, filling the gap from August. Remain bullish above $27.

Keurig Dr Pepper was trading around $29 Monday.

Keurig Dr Pepper stock is seeing a comeback off bullish candlesticks.

Starbucks stock is down roughly 5% in 2025 and offers a dividend yield of nearly 3%. Investors have shown patience waiting for meaningful price appreciation more than a year after Brian Niccol took the helm last year. That wait may be ending, as the stock is beginning to show signs of shaking off its “dead money” reputation. On the one-year daily chart, Starbucks is creeping above a bearish descending triangle that began on March 3 with a spinning top candle, signaling fatigue at a three-year high. Credit is due for recapturing its 21-day exponential moving average, a bullish development. I see potential for the stock to reach the round $100 level by early 2026, and remain constructive above $83/share. Starbucks will report earnings Wednesday after the close.

Starbucks was trading around $86.50 Monday.

Starbucks stock appears to be gaining confidence as it heads into year end.

Dutch Bros, the laggard of the coffee trifecta, sits about 32% below its 52-week high. Keurig Dr Pepper and Starbucks are down 20% and 26%, respectively, from their annual peaks. A potential comeback, however, appears under way, with the stock up 12% over the past month. On the daily chart, shares have formed two distinct lows just beneath the very round $50 level, each defined by bullish candlestick patterns. As I often like to say, there’s no reason to catch a falling knife until a technical catalyst emerges. That is precisely what occurred with a bullish piercing-line candle on April 7, followed by a morning star formation completed on Oct. 9, when the stock jumped 5% on strong volume. The doji candle that appeared in the middle of the latter pattern adds credibility to the bullish reversal narrative. I believe an entry here is justified, with an upside target toward $75 by Q1 2026, and would remain constructive above $54.

Dutch Bros traded at around $59 Monday.

Dutch Bros stock is showing a defined double bottom after two clear bullish bottoms this year.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com