Copper Is the New Gold

Supply disruptions, tariff uncertainty, and a surge in tech demand has copper on pace for its best annual gain since 2009. (Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Global copper prices reach an all-time high of $12,044 per ton, marking an annual gain of just under 40%.
• Copper prices have risen about 22.5% since July due to supply shortages, tech demand, and tariff uncertainty.
• U.S. domestic copper consumption is projected to increase by 50% over the next 25 years, with the U.S. importing 50% of its needs.

Global copper prices hit a fresh all-time high in early Tuesday trading, extending the metal’s best annual gain since 2009, as supply shortages, tech sector demand and tariff uncertainty continue to drive industrial metals prices higher in markets around the world. It’s starting to look a lot like gold.

Copper has risen around 22.5% since early July, when President Donald Trump floated the idea of a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports following a so-called Section 232 investigation into alleged national security concerns tied to the metal.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration says domestic consumption will hit record highs this year and next and expects overall demand will rise by 50% from current levels over the next 25 years.

The U.S. imports around 50% of the copper it consumes each year across a host of important sectors, including housing, transportation, construction, and electrical generation. The buildout in AI-powered data centers is also driving big changes in demand. The near 1.7 million tons it runs through each year amounts to around 7% of global demand.

However, a series of disruptions at some of the biggest copper mines around the world, tied to both natural disasters and man-made accidents, has upended supply chains and added upward pressure on prices beyond the normal demand surge.

“The copper supply chain is under strain, tight from mining to concentrate production,” Ewa Manthey, ING’s commodities strategist, said in a recent research note. “Meanwhile, the refined metal flows are being disrupted by tariff risks and unusually high U.S. stockpiles.”

“Until there is any clarity on the tariff front, the tariff risk will keep ex-US supply tight and global prices elevated,” she added.

Copper was up just over 1% on the session at the London Metal Exchange and changing hands at $12,044 a ton. The move marks the first time copper has passed the $12,000 threshold and takes its annual gain to just under 40%.

Gold and silver prices, meanwhile, have risen nearly 70% and 140% respectively so far this year, marking the best annual gain for precious metals prices since 1979.

Southern Copper , the biggest U.S.-listed copper miner by market value, was last seen trading 0.5% lower at $146.45 each, although the stock is up more than 65% for the year.

Freeport-McMoRan , meanwhile, was marked 1% higher at $51.14 each, a move that would take its 2025 advance to around 35%. BHP Group, which operates the world’s biggest mine in Chile, edged 0.6% higher to $61.16 each.

Write to Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com