Copper Rally Is Still Young. 6 Ways to Play It.

The surprise metal that may outperform silver and gold next year is copper. (Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.

6 Ways to Play Copper

Quick Takes
The Institutional View
Dec. 23: My two big themes for 2025 were gold and silver. Thankfully they were the leading investments this past year. 2026 should see them continue their winning ways, with silver continuing to outperform gold. I have written often that my long-term work projects to $100-plus silver in 2026, with a long-term target of $250-plus.

The surprise metal that may outperform silver and gold next year is copper. We recently recommended buying and maintaining long positions in LME copper. Copper’s technical position is similar to where gold was in March 2024, when it broke out decisively from its 13-year base by hurdling $2,200. Copper began its secular bull market only as recently as this month! That means that it has significantly further to soar in both time and price.

We continue to have Buy recommendations on six copper stocks: Zijin Mining, Antofagasta, Bolinden, Lundin Mining, MMG, and Southern Copper. I expect to be adding additional miners in the coming weeks and months.

Andrew Addison

Oil Is Oversold

Commodities Focus
NDR Ned Davis Research
Dec. 23: Following a sustained three-year decline, crude is trading at its most oversold level in more than a decade (excluding the pandemic).

The recent Dallas Fed Energy survey shows crude pessimism continues to spread among E&P [exploration and production] and Services firms, echoing market-based measures of sentiment.

We don’t see the makings of a lasting rally, but with sentiment and positioning this one-sided, the setup for a sharp countertrend bounce is hard to ignore.

Matt Bauer

Rates Tailwind for Stocks

Weekly Market Commentary
LPL Financial
Dec. 15: The Fed rate cycle should provide another tailwind for stocks in 2026, as it did in 2025. If the economy holds up, rate-cutting cycles tend to be followed by stock market gains. Stocks prefer rate cuts that are luxuries rather than emergencies—and we would categorize coming cuts as the former. The Fed is normalizing rates, not staving off an impending recession.

This rate-cutting cycle is unique because stocks are near all-time highs. In previous instances when the Fed cut rates, stocks were at or near record highs (we found 28 cases) and the S&P 500 was 13% higher on average 12 months later, with 93% of those 28 periods producing gains. Filtering that further, when the U.S. economy wasn’t in recession around a rate cut, the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 increased to 18%, with gains in all 21 periods. Near recessions, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% on average in the 12 months after the Fed reduced rates, with only 25% of periods generating a gain.

Jeffrey Buchbinder

2026 Bond Market Outlook

The Weekly Five
Northern Trust
Dec. 19: Three characteristics are shaping bond markets as we approach 2026: Nominal (non-inflation adjusted) yields are higher than their 20-year trend across longer-maturity bonds, credit spreads (the extra compensation investors require for investing in non-government-issued bonds) are extremely low, and global defaults (bond issuers failing to meet financial obligations, including missing an interest payment) are below longer-term averages.

While many readers may recall historical periods when interest rates were meaningfully higher, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield sits at levels not seen since 2008. For nearly 18 years, investors, lenders, and borrowers have lived in a world of sub-5% 10-year Treasury yields. And despite this year’s trade policy and inflationary issues, this has remained a durable ceiling. Although we anticipate inflation to abate, the coming change in Fed leadership, the gap between tariff rates and actual collections, and the risk of a widening fiscal gap could present a test to the 5% ceiling on the 10-year Treasury yield. A breach above that level is not our base case, but we have to respect upside risks to yields from levels we have grown accustomed to.

Eric Freedman

Calm Down. This Isn’t 1999.

Articles
William Blair
Dec. 11: We view the current environment as distinct from the internet bubble of 1999. Today’s companies investing in the buildout of AI infrastructure are mostly generating substantial free cash flow and funding growth organically. In contrast, the 1999 internet bubble was fueled largely by capital markets, with many businesses reliant on external financing and unsustainable business models that weren’t generating a profit.

In the late 1990s, a large amount of capital was used to install dark fiber— unused fiberoptic cables—capacity that far exceeded demand. While this overbuild of capacity eventually proved useful, it initially led to poor returns on invested capital as telecom companies poured billions into infrastructure that sat idle for many years. Eventually, the capital markets shut down, driven by higher interest rates and lack of near-term revenue. This dynamic, coupled with low returns from these investments, became problematic.

In contrast, today’s AI cycle is seeing the opposite dynamic. Graphic processing units (GPUs), the foundation used for AI workloads, have been deployed at or near full utilization since day one, generating immediate productivity and revenue for AI developers and hyperscalers (large data center companies).

The comparison highlights a key difference between past and present technology investment cycles. Dark fiber was a case of supply racing ahead of demand, whereas modern AI infrastructure is a case of demand pulling supply forward, supporting higher initial returns on capital deployed.

Jim Golan

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