Shutdown Will Delay Inflation Data Until Oct. 24. Here’s What Alternative Estimates Say.

Citigroup says core goods prices likely were slightly stronger in September. Above, a Costco store in Napa, Calif. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September’s Consumer Price Index on October 24, despite the government shutdown.
• Economists project September’s CPI to rise 0.4% monthly, with a 3.1% year-over-year increase for both headline and core inflation.
• A number of Federal Reserve officials said in recent weeks that they don’t expect inflation to climb much above the August readings.

September’s inflation data won’t be available on schedule next week, due to the government shutdown that began on Oct. 1. But the agency will be working, no matter how long the current funding lapse lasts, to get the data out later this month.

There is a plan under way to recall furloughed federal workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics to prepare the Consumer Price Index. That’s to ensure that the Social Security Administration can calculate inflation-adjust benefit payments. The BLS announced Friday that the September CPI will be published at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 24.

“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” according to the notice published Friday.

The Social Security Administration is required by statute to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment benefits and other program adjustments using the third-quarter CPI data, and to publish the increases before Nov. 1, an administration official told Barron’s on Friday.

Because of this, furloughed BLS staff will be recalled to promptly resume work on the September inflation data release. SSA benefits continue during a funding lapse because funding remains available, so in this case, the necessary staff will be exempted on an as-needed basis.

The effort to release the CPI report on Oct. 24 could also help Federal Reserve officials, since it would arrive ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 28-29. The absence of updated inflation data would have proven even more problematic than the missing September jobs report, which the BLS couldn’t release on Oct. 3.

Unlike labor data, comprehensive private-sector inflation data are scarce. That could make it difficult to discern how quickly price growth is accelerating above the Fed’s 2% target—and how the impact of higher tariffs is moving through the economy.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in September, matching the rate of growth in August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is estimated to have risen 0.3% on a monthly basis, consistent with August’s pace, as well. That would translate into a year-over-year growth rate of 3.1% for both headline and core inflation.

“We expect familiar patterns to repeat in September inflation data,” writes Veronica Clark, an economist at Citi. “Core goods prices may be slightly stronger, but we do not expect much abnormal strength that would be suggestive of substantial tariff pass through.”

Service prices, which saw a surge in July that moderated slightly in August, should continue to slow, Clark added, noting that inflation in airfares, in particular, is expected to be modest in September.

“In general, fundamentals of a weakening labor market and soft house prices keep us expecting that services inflation in both shelter and non-shelter components will continue easing into 2026,” Clark said.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcast model predicts that CPI inflation rose 0.4% on a rounded monthly basis in September, translating to annual growth of 3%. The Cleveland Fed estimates that core CPI rose 0.3% last month, and 3% year over year.

Much of the private inflation data is concentrated in specific sectors. Real-time market- intelligence firm OpenBrand, for example, estimates that price growth for consumer durables and personal goods accelerated 0.6% month over month. That is up from a rise of 0.5% in August.

The Grocery Price Index produced by Datasembly showed that overall grocery-product prices fell last month, based on data collected from more than 150,000 stores across the U.S. Egg prices, in particular, declined substantially, as did fruits and root vegetables, the index revealed. But seafood and candy prices both ticked higher.

Expectations that inflation will keep climbing stem, in part, from reports that the prices paid by purchasing managers for raw materials and inputs in both the manufacturing and services sectors are on the rise. The Institute of Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index, published on Oct. 3, revealed that the prices paid by services organizations increased last month. The prices subindex registered 69.4, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 69.2 rate recorded in August.

The ISM Manufacturing price index, published Oct. 1, showed that raw materials prices increased for the 12th consecutive month in September, although the overall pace of price increases was slower than in August.

The government shutdown has caused BLS personnel to pause collecting, processing, or publishing economic data for the duration of the shutdown. Once the government reopens, delays of other reports, including the wholesale inflation gauge, Producer Price Index, could persist because staff will likely need time to restart the collection and assessment process.

A number of Federal Reserve officials said in recent weeks that they don’t expect inflation to climb much above the August readings, with most predicting price growth will end the year about a percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.

Write to Megan Leonhardt at megan.leonhardt@barrons.com