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Cryptos’ Weak Pulse May Be Early Warning Sign. What the Charts of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Suggest

Nov 05, 2025 11:35:00 -0500 by Doug Busch | #Technical Analysis

bitcoin on a stock screen (Dreamstime)

Key Points

After rocketing through six figures earlier this year, Bitcoin has entered a phase of cautious consolidation. The cryptocurrency peaked above $126,000 in early October before slipping back below the very round $100,000 mark this week, as inflation data and rate-cut uncertainty stirred markets. Institutional interest remains elevated, but traders are now watching closely to see whether the pullback is a healthy reset or the start of something more sinister.

For now, the move should be treated a clear risk-off signal. Bitcoin remains one of the market’s favorite risk on barometers, and its recent weakness may be the canary in the coal mine on that front. While Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana tend to trade in correlated fashion, it’s Bitcoin that commands the spotlight. As one old adage goes, when it sneezes, the rest of the group catches a cold. All three coins have drawn interest from major ETF sponsors and from the current administration, with hopes that greater institutional adoption might smooth out volatility. Let’s take a closer look at how each is shaping up technically.

Looking at the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF , one can see it now fits the classic bear-market definition, trading more than 20% off its recent 52-week high set less than a month ago. That peak coincided with the completion of a bearish evening star pattern, as the ETF dropped 3% on Oct. 7. Round-number theory came into play as well, as it fell below the $70 level. It has declined three of the last four weeks, with each week closing at or in the lower half of its range. This week it is off another 8% so far. Yesterday, the ETF undercut its 200-day simple moving average, losing 5.5% for its steepest single-day drop since April 7.

It is imperative the ETF holds near current levels. Before investors can convincingly turn constructive again, IBIT must reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average, a reliable gauge of bullish momentum. Back in April, that recovery took just six sessions.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF was trading around $58.70 Wednesday.

IBIT needs to recapture 200- and 21-day moving averages before investors can turn bullish.

IBIT needs to recapture 200- and 21-day moving averages before investors can turn bullish.

Ethereum, via the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF , is down 34% from its annual peak and now negative on a year-to-date basis (-5%), highlighting the volatility in the crypto space. This week alone, the ETF is down 17%, roughly double the decline of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. That said, from early April to late August, ETHE rose more than 220%, making this pullback both prudent and necessary. Notably, the fund hasn’t pierced its 200-day simple moving average, touching it yesterday while retesting the breakout above a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. How it behaves around this secular line over the coming week will be key. If some stability emerges, it could present a compelling buying opportunity. After being halted at the round $40 level on Aug. 22, the recent action may be shaping a double-bottom base, provided the lows hold.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF was trading around $28 Wednesday.

ETHE held its 200-day simple moving average Tuesday.

ETHE held its 200-day simple moving average Tuesday.

The Solana ETF has been taking the hardest hit, now down 41% from its most recent 52-week high set in September. This heightened volatility may reflect its relative newness, having started trading only in April. The Solana ETF topped out Sept. 18 in a spinning-top, the middle bar of a bearish island reversal formed by a gap up and gap down sandwiching the candle. SOLZ has fallen five of the last seven weeks, with three of those clocking in as double-digit declines. It is off another 19% this week through just two sessions. On the daily chart, a break below the bearish head-and-shoulders pivot at $19 suggests a potential measured move down to $12.

The Solana ETF was trading around $16.50 Wednesday.

The Solana ETF has been the most volatile of the bunch, accelerating to the downside.

The Solana ETF has been the most volatile of the bunch, accelerating to the downside.

The widening gap between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana is an uncommon break in crypto’s usual rhythm, and how it performs the rest of this week could go a long way toward defining the market’s tone into year-end.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com