Deckers Outdoor Stock Rises on Strong Hoka and Ugg Sales. Why Analysts Are Split.

Deckers Outdoor, the maker of Hoka sneakers, declined to provide a fiscal-year outlook in the face of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. (Dreamstime)

Shares of Deckers Outdoor were rising, emerging as the leader Friday in the S&P 500 index.

The gains came on the back of fiscal first-quarter earnings for the three months ended June 30. Total revenue surged 17% to $964.5 million in the period, topping forecasts of $900.4 million. Sales of Hoka-branded sneakers soared 20% to $653.1 million, while Ugg sales increased 19% to $265.1 million. Both figures came in above analysts’ forecasts.

While the company declined to provide fiscal-year guidance in the face of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, commentary on the earnings call suggested Hoka and Ugg would continue to grow, with international sales outpacing U.S. sales.

The latest results boosted shares 13% t0 $118.27 on Friday. It was a welcome turn of events for a company which has seen shares fall 42% this year.

Between April and June, Deckers stock fell 7.8%, marking its worst second-quarter calendar performance since a 9.3% drop in 2013. These losses pale in comparison to the stock’s 45% decline from January to March. Deckers ended the first calendar quarter of 2025 as the worst performer in the S&P 500 index.

Shares pulled back 21% in February alone when fiscal third-quarter earnings showed a dwindling growth margin and Deckers issued soft guidance. The stock also has been battered by recession fears, which put retail in the crosshairs of lower spending.

In May, shares fell sharply after the company issued guidance below Wall Street expectations. That earned Deckers a downgrade from KeyBanc Capital Markets, with analysts pointing to “clear deceleration” within its popular Hoka brand.

Now that the dust has settled following the latest earnings report, analysts are torn on where they stand. TD Cowen analyst John Kernan, for one, thinks Deckers “remains one of the highest quality businesses and financial models in the sector.”

Kernan reiterated a Buy rating and raised his price target on the shares to $154 from $147 in a note Friday. He noted that management was particularly upbeat about Ugg and Hoka product pipelines through spring 2026, and expects high sell-through and re-orders to drive wholesale performance into the second half of the year.

Notably, price increases on select products since July 1 “have not deterred performance or orders,” Kernan wrote.

Management noted on the earnings call that tariff-related headwinds could be partially offset by “selective and staggered price increases in the U.S.” CEO Stefano Caroti conceded that, assuming levies on Vietnam increase to 20% from 10%, the company would expect to face a total of $185 million of unmitigated impact to its cost of goods sold in fiscal 2026, marking an increase from a previous estimate of $150 million.

Others on Wall Street were less upbeat. Seaport Research Partners analyst Mitch Kummetz noted that the company delivered a “substantial” earnings and sales beat in the latest quarter, but “some of the sales growth and a lot of the sales beat was due to earlier shipments.” Moreover, growth in U.S. and direct-to-consumer segments was “flattish” across both the most recent quarter and that preceding.

While Deckers “now feels more confident in its sales prospects for the year,” tariffs are also expected to be a bigger drag on the cost of goods sold, Kummetz wrote. “This latter change has DECK looking to pull additional mitigation levers.”

He remains Neutral on the stock, with no price target. In the analyst’s view, “DECK’s results and guidance were not as bad as some feared, but we still have some reservations regarding HOKA and UGG brand momentum in the US.”

Of 30 firms polled by FactSet, 13 rate the stock at Buy or the equivalent, 16 at Hold, and one at Sell.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com