Disney’s ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Falls Short of Domestic Box Office Sales Expectations

Walt Disney’s Avatar: Fire and Ash fell short of expectations for domestic box office sales in its first weekend. (Courtesy Disney)

Key Points

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash” made $345 million globally in its opening weekend, but its $88 million domestic take fell short of the $110 million to $135 million analysts expected.
• Analysts project the fourth quarter domestic box office to be down by at least mid-single-digits, with a highly improbable 59% year-over-year growth needed to meet goals.
• The latest Avatar achieved the widest global IMAX release ever across 1,703 screens, securing the third-highest international IMAX debut and fifth-biggest IMAX debut in history.

Walt Disney and 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash splashed to the top of the global box office with an estimated $345 million weekend haul, but its domestic take fell short of analysts’ expectations.

The third installment of James Cameron’s fantasy adventure about the blue Na’vi people raked in $88 million across 3,800 screens in the U.S. and Canada, but analysts had been anticipating domestic sales of $110 million to $135 million.

Roth Senior Research Analyst Eric Handler wrote last week that Avatar: Fire and Ash was expected to kick off a strong rally in the final two weeks of the fourth quarter, with a projected $110 million opening weekend. Hollywood is under pressure to achieve $9 billion in box office sales for the year, a goal that seems to be in doubt.

Handler expects fourth-quarter domestic box office sales to fall short of estimates, noting that the quarter is on track to finish down “at least mid-single-digits.”

Moviegoers shelled out an estimated nearly $178.7 million over the weekend, drawn by many new releases during the all-important holiday season, including the latest Avatar.

Comscore’s head of marketplace trends Paul Dergarabedian said with the industry’s estimated nearly $8.4 million in domestic box office through Sunday, up 1% from this point in 2024, the potential for $9 billion remains.

“There are 10 more days in the box office year starting on Monday, and we are about $600 million away” from that threshold, he said. The sheer number of films opening this week and strong holdovers including Avatar make this one of the most packed seasons in box office history.

Lionsgate’s ‘The Housemaid’ was third at the domestic box office this weekend. Photo: DANIEL MCFADDEN/LIONSGATE

But Handler is skeptical. “In order to achieve our full-quarter estimate of $2.5 billion,” or plus 7% year over year, Hollywood would need gross ticket sales of more than $965 million over the last two weeks of the year, or “a highly improbable 59%” year-over-year growth, he wrote.

This weekend’s four new wide-release films ensured there was “something for everyone at the multiplex,” Dergarbedian said.

Angel Studios’ David, a PG-rated animated family musical starring Asim Chaudhry, opened in second place at the domestic box office with $22 million. It was the best three-day theatrical opening in Angel history (surpassing Sound of Freedom’s $19.6 million opening in 2023), and is the highest-grossing faith-based animated theatrical opening of all-time, Comscore said.

Lionsgate’s The Housemaid, a R-rated thriller based on the best-selling book and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, debuted in third place with $19.0 million.

Paramount Pictures’ The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, SpongeBob’s fourth PG-rated animated adventure, opened in fourth place with $16.0 million.

In fifth place, Disney’s Zootopia 2 sold another $14.5 million in its fourth weekend, bringing its domestic cumulative take through Sunday to $282.8 million. Over four weekends, the animated film has grossed an estimated nearly $1.3 billion worldwide.

Paramount’s ‘The SpongeBob Movie: Search For SquarePants’ was fourth this weekend. Photo: COURTESY PARAMOUNT ANIMATION; NICKELODEON

And A24’s Marty Supreme, the R-rated drama starring Timothée Chalamet and Gwyneth Paltrow, sold out 92 shows for $875,000 despite playing in only six theaters in New York and Los Angeles, taking in a record per-screen average of $145,833, the highest since 2016’s La La Land.

Marty Supreme opens in wide release on Christmas, along with Sony Pictures’ Anaconda, and Focus Features’ Song Sung Blue.

Avatar: Fire and Ash, a three-hour, 17 minute film about Jake and Neytiri’s family facing off against a new, aggressive Na’vi tribe called the Ash people, stars Sigourney Weaver, Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, and Stephen Lang.

It sold $257 million internationally through Sunday, and studios are hoping it ignites another $2 billion-plus worldwide moviegoing phenomenon.

The first Avatar film, released in 2009, grossed $785.2 million in domestic box ticket sales and more than $2.9 billion worldwide, with 73% of its gross ticket sales outside the U.S. and Canada, according to BoxOfficeMojo. It clocked in at two hours, 42 minutes.

Avatar: The Way of Water, the 2022 follow-up, grossed $688.5 million at the domestic box office and $2.3 billion worldwide, with 71% of ticket sales outside the U.S. and Canada. The sequel was three hours, 12 minutes long.

Steve Buck, chief strategy Officer for EntTelligence, noted that Avatar: The Way of Water’s opening weekend drew 8.7 million people and 85% of the national audience in December 2022*.* In comparison, Avatar: Fire and Ash drew only 5.2 million people and 45% of national foot traffic, because it was competing with David (14% of the moviegoing audience), The Housemaid (12%), The SpongeBob Movie (9%), and Zootopia 2 (8%).

Avatar: Fire and Ash also sold $43.6 million in global IMAX tickets. It made its debut across 1,703 IMAX screens worldwide in the widest global IMAX release of all time, becoming the third-highest ever international IMAX debut, and the fifth-biggest debut in IMAX history.

Handler says that it could gross about $160 million for IMAX by the end of the year, up from the $151 million Avatar: The Way of Water grossed in the fourth quarter of 2022. He attributed much of the projected differential between the two titles to the higher screen count for the latest film.

Dergarabedian said that many of Avatar’s screenings are in 3D or premium formats, which is a major selling point of the film‘s success globally, and will provide a boost to January 2026 box office sales. “The Avatar films have historically been marathon runners, not sprinters,” saying the 2009 film played for nearly a year in theaters, and 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, played for six months consecutively in movie theaters in the U.S. and Canada, he said.

Any movie that runs over three hours means fewer available showtimes a day, “thus making its $88 million debut pretty darn impressive,” he added.

Dergarabedian told Barron’s that “More importantly, 2026 is shaping up to be the biggest domestic box office year since the pandemic, with an incredible slate of blockbuster films including the recently announced Spielberg film [Disclosure Day] and Tom Cruise’s new film [Digger] now set for release next year.”

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com