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Netflix vs. TikTok, Disney Soars, and 3 More Not-So-Wild Media Predictions for 2026

Dec 31, 2025 02:00:00 -0500 by George Glover | #Media

Netflix agreed to buy Warner Bros. earlier this month, in a deal that could forever shake up the Hollywood pecking order. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Key Points

From tariff threats to megamergers, it’s been a volatile year for media and telecom stocks. Investors may be hoping for a calmer landscape next year but there’s plenty of scenarios that could catch markets off guard.

Here are five predictions of events that could shake up the media and telecom sector in 2026 and beyond.

1. Netflix and Paramount Miss Out on Warner Bros.

Don’t expect the biggest media-industry story line of 2025 to die down anytime soon. Netflix said earlier this month that it had agreed a deal to buy the streaming and studios assets of Warner Bros. Discovery for $27.75 a share —but just days later, rival Paramount Skydance went direct to investors with a hostile bid, for all of Warner Discovery at $30 a share. Paramount amended that tender offer on Dec. 21, to include personal guarantees from Oracle executive chair Larry Ellison.

The plot twists have come thick and fast—Warner urged shareholders to reject Paramount’s bid in favor of the “superior” Netflix deal earlier this month. But that doesn’t mean the drama is over.

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Source: FactSetAs of Dec. 30, 4 p.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Warner Bros. DiscoveryParamount SkydanceNetflix2025Dec.-50050100150200%

There’s a chance that both companies end up disappointed due to regulatory concerns, with President Donald Trump not sounding too keen on either offer. Trump warned that the Netflix-Warner combination “could be a problem” earlier this month—but just a day later, he slammed CBS, which is owned by Paramount, for airing an interview with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

The odds of no deal being closed by June 30, 2027 stand at 8%, according to the online prediction site Polymarket. In that situation, investors would be wise to avoid all three stocks, which could struggle to make much headway until all this uncertainty has lifted.

2. Major Media Players Go All-In on AI

Artificial intelligence has been driving tech stocks higher ever since OpenAI released ChatGPT just over three years ago. In 2026, it may finally be the media industry’s turn.

Walt Disney said earlier this month that it was making a $1 billion investment into OpenAI, in a partnership that will allow users of the latter’s generative AI video app Sora to access characters like Mickey Mouse, Cinderella, and Captain America.

Expect a slew of rival entertainment companies to follow suit—and perhaps even bigger disruption. It’s possible a major player in streaming might go all-in by broadcasting an AI-generated series next year—a decision that would probably spark a backlash from writers and actors, but could pave the way for future cost cuts.

3. Streaming Loses Its Luster to TikTok and YouTube TV

Media giants have spent the past few years trying to catch up with Netflix in the streaming wars—but that sector already faces outside threats.

Alphabet’s YouTube TV had a 12.9% share of the market for U.S. viewers, according to November data from Nielsen—putting the platform comfortably ahead of Netflix, at 8.3%, and Disney’s streaming services, at 4.7%. Short-form video apps like Meta Platforms’ Instagram and TikTok are also luring younger generations away from streaming platforms, and that could accelerate next year.

Some investors see the potential Netflix-Warner Bros. deal as a sign that the streamer has already started worrying about these existential threats. Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said on Monday that the “extremely expensive” deal was “an $83 billion admission of long-term headwinds,” including the threat posed by apps like TikTok.

4. Disney Stock Goes From Laggard to Leader

Disney has stayed on the sidelines while the battle for Warner Bros. plays out—and that could set the stage for the House of Mouse’s shares, down about 2% since December 2025, to outperform its rival next year after a lost decade.

CEO Bob Iger is approaching the final year of his second stint in charge of the company, with his successor expected to be announced early in 2026. Iger’s priorities for his final stretch are relatively simple: Grow streaming, maintain momentum for parks and experiences, and figure out what’s happening with ESPN. Shares currently fetch just 17-times future earnings for the current fiscal year—cheap for a company with a solid streaming audience and heaps of valuable intellectual property.

Barron’s just named Disney as one of its 10 stocks investors should buy next year. But if the entertainment giant can go from industry laggard to the sector’s top stock, that would be a serious turnup.

5. AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon Stocks All Plummet

The Big Three wireless stocks got a boost in early 2025, as Trump’s tariff plans sent investors piling into safe-haven sectors—but they have struggled for direction since then, due to worries about sluggish subscriber growth. But investors who are hoping they’ll benefit from a similar flight to safety next year could be in for a rude awakening.

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Source: FactSetAs of Dec. 30, 4 p.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1AT&TVerizonT-Mobile2025Dec.-15-10-505101520253035%

AT&T, T-Mobile US and Verizon Communications could all carry on struggling in 2026 due to the White House’s crackdown on immigration, which is expected to drag down the number of legal and illegal immigrants crossing the border and take a big chunk out of the telecom industry’s total addressable market.

Immigration has likely accounted for nearly a third of all wireless subscriber additions since the start of 2022, according to estimates by MoffettNathanson, a research boutique focused on technology, media, and telecom—so there could be tough times ahead for AT&T and its rivals, considering Trump’s crackdown.

Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com