Disney and YouTube TV Still Haven’t Reached A Deal. Here’s the Latest.

Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings poses for the camera against the Atlanta Falcons before the game at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sept. 14, 2025. (Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Key Points

• YouTube TV subscribers face another weekend without Disney-owned channels, including ABC and ESPN, due to an unresolved contract dispute.
• Morgan Stanley estimates the blackout costs Disney $0.02 in lower adjusted EPS and a $60 million revenue headwind each week.
• YouTube TV, with approximately 10 million subscribers, is growing rapidly and gaining negotiating leverage over traditional cable providers.

YouTube TV subscribers are gearing up for another weekend without access to several NFL and college football games as a contract dispute with Walt Disney continues.

Disney owned channels, like ABC and ESPN, became unavailable for YouTube TV subscribers at the end of October after both companies failed to come to terms on a new streaming agreement. Almost two weeks later, neither the media entertainment giant or the video streaming platform owned by Alphabet have given any indication that the blackout would be ending soon.

Some experts think the blackout will end in the coming days as not offering these channels to paying subscribers has negative impacts on both companies.

YouTube TV—which costs $82.99 a month and directly competes with traditional cable providers—sent an email to customers this week that it was offering a $20 credit to subscribers amid the “disappointing,” dispute with Disney. That credit has to be claimed by the subscriber as it isn’t automatically given.

Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne wrote in a note on Sunday that he believes the dispute will be resolved “later this week but each week of lost distribution is estimated at $0.02 of lower adj. EPS [for Disney].” He also said that he estimates the blackout “is a $60mm revenue headwind.”

Swinburne rates Disney as Overweight with a $140 price target.

Raymond James analyst Ric Prentiss wrote in a note on Oct. 31 that he thinks YouTube TV as a channel provider is growing in importance for network distributors like Disney. Traditional cable subscriptions continue to decline as people cut the cord and switch to strictly streaming services, but YouTube TV keeps growing. This gives YouTube TV a negotiating advantage, he said.

“YouTube TV reportedly has ~10M subscribers, up significantly from ~8M in February 2024, and should soon surpass leading traditional MVPDs [multichannel video programming distributors] Charter, Comcast, and DirecTV, all somewhere in the low-double digit millions,” he wrote.

“Given it is rapidly growing vs. declining, and is in our view the go-to Pay-TV offering for younger and streaming-native audiences, we think YTTV [YouTube TV] is perhaps the most important MVPD relationship the media companies currently have,” he said.

However, YouTube TV might be in trouble if people cancel their subscriptions if they can’t access what’s become a major growth driver for streaming services: live sports. “We hope YouTube TV continues to be your service of choice, but we understand some of our members may want to cancel their subscriptions,” YouTube TV said in its email to customers this week.

Streamers have recognized that sports are an important asset as fans are willing to follow their favorite teams to different platforms. Netflix is streaming some NFL Christmas games, Peacock hosts Sunday Night Football games, and Amazon.com streams Thursday night games.

YouTube TV, like cable, offers a simple option for customers to watch many live games in one place. But without access to Disney’s ABC or ESPN, a handful of games have become unavailable on the platform, including Monday Night Football.

Subscribers will be keeping a close eye on their screens as YouTube TV and Disney try and hash out a new deal. It will be a fumble for both companies and their customers if nothing is done before kickoff this weekend.

Write to Angela Palumbo at angela.palumbo@dowjones.com