Dollar Tree Stock Rises as Retailer Closes Strong 2025 With a Bang

The company beat consensus earnings forecasts and lifted its fiscal-year outlook.  (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Dollar Tree reports adjusted earnings of $1.21 a share, exceeding analysts’ estimates of $1.09.
• Comparable-store sales increase by 4.2% year over year, slightly above the anticipated growth of 4.1%.
• The company raises its fiscal -year adjusted earnings forecast to $5.60-$5.80 a share from $5.32-$5.72.

Dollar Tree stock rose Wednesday after the low-cost retailer reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings as cash-strapped consumers hunted for value.

Adjusted earnings came in at $1.21 a share for its fiscal third quarter, above analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.09. Sales totaled $4.7 billion, in line with Wall Street’s forecasts.

Comparable-store sales, stripping out the Family Dollar business, which Dollar Tree sold in July, rose 4.2% from the prior year. Analysts had anticipated growth of 4.1%.

The company now expects per-share adjusted earnings of $5.60 to $5.80 for the fiscal year, up from a previous forecast of $5.32 to $5.72.

Dollar Tree rose 2.1% in premarket trading Wednesday. Shares were up 45% this year as of Tuesday’s close, buoyed by shoppers across the income spectrum looking for value. Fellow discount retailer Dollar General gained 0.6%.

Like Dollar General, Dollar Tree has been gradually implementing a so-called multiprice strategy, meaning that items are sold at various price points rather than the staple $1. While there were some concerns that shifting away from the dollar strategy could alienate some consumers, that hasn’t happened. In fact, selling products at a slightly higher price has offset tariff costs and helped dollar stores’ margin growth.

And with about 85% of Dollar Tree’s products still costing $2 or less, the company has continued to gain market share and relevance with its “solid lineup of consumable and discretionary items,” wrote Michael Montani, an analyst at Evercore ISI, on Wednesday. He rates the stock In Line.

Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma, however, still isn’t convinced that the price increases won’t erode Dollar Tree’s “unique moat and value proposition” in the months to come. She also notes that the company still faces challenges.

“The real test comes when many one-time tailwinds (e.g., trade in, price increases, the benefit of Party City’s closure and Temu’s pullback) dissipate next year,” she wrote on Wednesday. She rates the stock at Market-Perform.

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