Review & Preview: Open for Business

Nov 12, 2025 19:30:00 -0500 by Megan Leonhardt | #Markets #Review & Preview

Shutdown Solace. Investors today were once again cheering the imminent end of the shutdown.

The House of Representatives is set to pass a government funding bill tonight that will end the record-breaking 43-day shutdown, with a final vote expect tonight, perhaps just as this newsletter is hitting your inboxes.

The imminent government reopening is “good news” for investors, writes Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. “Investors are right to believe that we barely averted catastrophe. Had the shutdown phase crept into the biggest shopping season of the year and during peak holiday travel, we would probably be talking about a greater chance of recession. Thankfully, we averted a bigger crisis.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 48,000 for the first time ever, even as the Magnificent Seven stocks weighed on the other major indexes. The blue-chip index rose 327 points, or 0.7%.

The S&P 500 was also up 0.1%. But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%.

Earnings keep chugging away, with more companies reporting solid quarters. Today’s two notable reports—from Cisco Systems and Circle Internet Group —came with very different results for the companies’ stocks.

Cisco shares were up as much as 8% in after-hours trading tonight following a strong report from the networking firm. Both its latest quarter and projection for the coming year exceeded Wall Street’s estimates, with the company’s CEO citing related AI demand.

But Circle stock dipped to near its lowest levels ever—albeit in what amounts to a brief trading history—despite better-than-expected numbers from the stablecoin issuer, which went public in June. My colleagues Nate Wolf and Paul La Monica report that the stock’s slump may not have much to do with the company’s performance.

Investors may be worried about the expiration of a so-called lockup period for the stock, which prevents executives and other insiders from selling shares. Typically, investors aren’t allowed to sell until 180 days after an IPO. In this case, that would be early December.

But according to regulatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Circle said in June that the lockup period could expire as soon as “the second trading day after we publicly announce our earnings for the quarter ending September 30, 2025.” That would be this Friday.

Walt Disney reports tomorrow morning, offering investors the latest look at the streaming economy, consumer demand for theme parks, and the ongoing dispute that’s keeping Disney content from YouTubeTV’s 10 million U.S. subscribers.

But it’s the end of the shutdown that will likely continue to loom large for markets. Stay tuned for another potential rally.

Company

Last

Chg

Chg%

Dow Jones Industrial Average

48,254.82

326.86

0.68%

S&P 500 Index

6,850.92

4.31

0.06%

NASDAQ Composite Index

23,406.46

-61.84

-0.26%

Market Data as of

The Hot Stock: Advanced Micro Devices +9.0%
The Biggest Loser: Paramount Skydance -7.0%

Best Sector: Healthcare +1.4%
Worst Sector: Energy -1.4%

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Wednesday, Nov. 12Index performanceSource: FactSetAs of Nov. 12, 4 p.m. ET

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Nov. 12-1.00-0.75-0.50-0.2500.250.500.751.001.25%Dow industrialsS&P 500Nasdaq Composite

Statistical Agencies Under Fire…Again

The White House press secretary this afternoon raised doubts about whether statistical agencies, namely the much-maligned Bureau of Labor Statistics, would be able to generate key October economic indicators.

The shutdown “may have permanently damaged the Federal statistical system, with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday.

The administration previously floated the idea that the October CPI wouldn’t be published last month, a plan that the BLS refused to endorse. “Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar,” the agency said in a statement to Barron’s at the time.

The BLS, whose employees are nearly all furloughed, hasn’t yet announced plans for post-shutdown releases of economic data.

Economists, however, are fairly confident that statistical agencies will be able to publish October data, though potentially on a more limited basis and with a greater lag.

“Frankly, I would take the White House’s statement with a large grain of salt,” Omair Sharif, founder of the research firm Inflation Insights, said in response to Leavitt’s comments. “I don’t know where they are getting this information from. These kinds of decisions are made by BLS technocrats, not by the White House.”

When it comes to labor data, it’s worth noting that the BLS is statutorily mandated to collect, collate, report, and publish at least once each month “full and complete statistics of the volume of and changes in employment, as indicated by the number of persons employed, the total wages paid, and the total hours of employment.”

No one, however, disputes that it will be challenging for the BLS to gather data typically included in the October household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate—and CPI inflation.

The CPI data are collected, in part, by BLS field staff who use online prices, as well as thousands of in-person visits that weren’t conducted in October and early November.

Some prices can be recreated, says Sam Coffin, economist with Morgan Stanley. But like many economists, Coffin is expecting the October estimates to be less reliable. During the 16-day government shutdown in 2013, the BLS only got 75% of the month’s usual data. “With a four-week shutdown, the yield will be that much less—maybe 50% of the usual data,” Coffin estimates.

Even if the BLS does take the step to cancel the October releases, it would likely still include October statistics in the November releases and have them available in the data series, says Erica Groshen, senior economics advisor at Cornell University and a former BLS commissioner. There is a “difference between saying that a release is cancelled, and that the data will never be available,” she says.

The Calendar

Walt Disney, Applied Materials, Brookfield, Tencent, and JD.com report quarterly results tomorrow.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics was previously scheduled to release the consumer price index for October, but the shutdown halted government data releases.

What We’re Reading Today

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