It’s Earnings Warning Season. How to Profit From Others’ Misery.

Since 2011, Lululemon has issued earnings preannouncements 15 times in January. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

January is an optimistic time of year for investors, but not necessarily for corporate America.

When others are making New Year’s resolutions, or are starry-eyed about the prospects of making money, many companies issue earnings preannouncements that are essentially confessions. Needless to say, they’re bad news for their stocks—and they’re often overlooked because they follow the most joyous time of the year.

Bank strategists publish confident reports in December that the new year will be great for stocks, especially those they recommend. Investors are also inundated with reminders of the so-called January effect, which has come to be understood as one of the best months of the year to own stocks, not just small-caps.

But companies often use the feel-good mood to reset investor expectations. Preannouncing in January is so prevalent that it has become a structural market fact.

John Marshall, Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, studied more than 8,000 preannouncements since 2011 and found that about 26% of all earnings warnings occur in January, more than double other months. More than 60% of January’s warnings are from healthcare or consumer-discretionary companies.

Marshall recently screened a broad swatch of equities and found 25 stocks that have preannounced at least five times in January since 2011. The ignominious: Lululemon Athletica , Illumina , Five Below , American Eagle Outfitters , Regeneron Pharmaceuticals , Danaher, Exact Sciences, Interparfums, T-Mobile US, DexCom, Globus Medical, Hologic, Amicus Therapeutics, CareDx, Staar Surgical, Abercrombie & Fitch, Silicon , Pacira BioSciences, Novocure, Orchid Island Capital, Halozyme Therapeutics, PTC Therapeutics, QuidelOrtho, InterDigital, and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.

When a respected strategist issues a report backed by intensive analysis, the Street takes notice. Some investors trade the entire list, some pick names, and others monitor the results.

While we are usually biased against trading when we think we lack a distinctive insight against the market mob, some stocks on Marshall’s list have seductively dour records—and that presents an opportunity for investors to profit.

Since 2011, Lululemon has preannounced 15 times in January; Illumina, 14 times; Five Below, 13 times; American Eagle, 12 times; and Regeneron, 11 times.

Over the past year, Lululemon, at a recent $210.67, has declined some 45%. Its stock chart looks horrible, though it jumped in December on the news that CEO Calvin McDonald plans to resign at January’s end —and that Elliott Investment Management, an activist investor, had taken a $1 billion position in the company.

Lululemon’s management is clearly under pressure. Hence, it is reasonable to think they will use January to tidy up their affairs and reset investor expectations to curry favor with Elliott.

To position for a January debacle, investors can buy Lululemon’s January $205 put option and sell the January $190 put. The spread costs about $3.55 and profits when the stock begins to drop below $201.45. At $190, the spread’s maximum profit is $11.45. (Puts give investors the right to sell an underlying asset at a set price and time.)

The spread strategy—buying one put and selling another with a lower strike price but similar expiration date—balances risk and reward.

If Lululemon rallies in January, less money was spent than simply buying a put, so less was lost. If the stock sinks, the spread still produces an attractive return.

The strategy hedges the outcome by limiting risk rather than just rolling the dice on strong odds. That discipline works in January and should be part of your decision-making year round.

Email: editors@barrons.com