Mamdani Wins NYC Election. What Democrat Victories Mean for Shutdown and Midterms.

People vote at the High School of Art and Design in Manhattan on Tuesday. (Timothy A. Clary / AFP / Getty Images)

Key Points

• Democrats secured key victories in New York City’s mayoral race and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey.
• A CNN/SSRS poll indicated over two-thirds of Americans view the economy as “poor” or “very poor” before the elections.
• California voters approved redrawing the state’s electoral map, potentially adding five House seats for Democrats after 2026.

Americans voted Tuesday in the first major round of polls since President Donald Trump won the 2024 election. Even though most Americans didn’t have a race in their hometown, the outcomes will have plenty of impact on political battles that affect the entire nation.

Trump injected himself into some of the most-watched races, making them, in part, a referendum on his presidency so far. During a rally, Trump claimed Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate for New Jersey governor, had energy policies that would “end up doubling and tripling your energy costs.” He called Zohran Mamdani, who defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the race for New York mayor, “a 100% Communist Lunatic.”

Trump’s own economic policies have fallen flat in recent polls. More than two-thirds of Americans in a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday said the economy was “poor” or “very poor.” A bad showing for the GOP would confirm that those concerns spell trouble for Republicans in future elections.

Political analysts focused primarily on the outcome of four races.

In New York City, Mamdani, a democratic socialist, beat Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa in the race to be mayor. Trump gave a last-minute endorsement to Cuomo, who split the Republican vote with Sliwa.

Mamdani’s margin ended up being too big for Trump’s backing to matter. The Associated Press declared Mamdani the winner at 9:34 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.

Two gubernatorial elections also went in Democrats’ favor. In Virginia, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger defeated Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant governor, to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Sherrill beat Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey.

Finally in California, residents voted to redraw the state’s electoral map in a way that would likely give Democrats five more seats in the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Gov. Gavin Newsom has pitched the referendum as a way to hurt Trump and counter a partisan gerrymander in Texas that would take five seats away from Democrats.

Newsom was so confident that the referendum will pass that last week, he told backers to hold off on more donations.

Through Trump isn’t on the ballot, the vote is many Americans’ first formal chance to register their contentment or displeasure with his presidency. A strong night for Democrats could be an early warning sign for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. About 54% of Americans disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president versus 42% who approve, according to a polling average by the Strength In Numbers newsletter.

A strong performance by Democrats “would signal that the party is posed to retake the House in next year’s midterm elections,” wrote Stifel chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner in a research note ahead of the vote.

From a historical perspective, Democrats are a heavy favorite to flip the House in any case, Gardner noted. They need merely three seats to regain control, and since World War II, the party out of power has gained seats in 18 of 20 midterm election, with an average gain of 25 seats.

To try to buck the trend, GOP-controlled legislatures in Texas and other states are redrawing House districts in ways that favor Republicans. California and Democrat-run states are attempting to counter them with their own gerrymanders.

In the immediate term, an especially strong showing by Democrats could even extend the current government shutdown, which late Tuesday became the longest ever. Thus far, Senate Democrats have refused to vote in favor of a funding bill unless it includes an extension of subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiums that are set to expire at the end of this year.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) on Monday told reporters he’s “optimistic” the shutdown could end this week. Some political analysts have said the deal could include a promise to vote on the subsidy extension later this year.

But “if the Democrats run the table in tonight’s election, the base will push back hard on compromising,” wrote Strategas head of policy research Dan Clifton in a note on Tuesday.

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com