ETFs That Could Benefit Most From the ‘Big, Beautiful’ Tax Cut

Ned Davis sees defense, nuclear, digital assets, and artificial intelligence benefiting from the passage of President Donald Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

President Donald Trump’s second-term priorities are coming into clearer focus. So are the Trump-trade stocks that stand to benefit most from his agenda.

It’s been a busy six months since President Trump took office in January: The president has signed more than 170 executive orders, launched an on-again off-again trade war and, on July 4, signed a massive $3 trillion tax cut, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

That’s given investors a new opportunity to game out which sectors stand to benefit most during the remainder of Trump’s term.

“When we created our initial Trump Trade index prior to the 2024 election, we had only a general idea of Trump’s agenda and the key themes impacted,” wrote Ned Davis researchers Pat Tschosik and Matt Bauer in a note Wednesday. “We now see defense, nuclear, digital assets and [artificial intelligence] as having the most momentum, presidential support and longevity over Trump’s term.”

Ned Davis also singled out a number of exchange-traded funds investors can use to bet on those themes.

Among the biggest Trump policy winners is defense, which will benefit from more than $150 billion in new spending as part of the One Big, Beautiful tax bill, as well as a slew of executive orders aimed at streamlining procurement and building a version of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system to guard the U.S.

It’s not just stateside: Other NATO members have recently pledged to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, following pressure from the Trump administration, creating more potential upside for the industry.

Among ETFs that could see gains from the trend, Ned Davis recommends Global X Defense Tech, with top holdings that include Palantir Technologies, Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems.

Energy is another area where the Trump White House has made a big impact, tilting the playing field toward fossil fuels and nuclear energy and away from other forms of clean energy such as wind and solar. The One Big, Beautiful Bill pares a number of Biden-era clean energy subsidies.

IShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, with top holdings such as ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, and Marathon Petroleum, is one ETF poised to gain from Trump’s policies. Global X Uranium ETF is another. The fund targets companies involved in uranium mining and other aspects of the nuclear-power industry. Top holdings include Cameco, NuScale Power, Oklo, and NexGen Energy.

On the technology front, Trump has spent years courting the crypto community, even launching his own meme coin, albeit to mixed reviews. On Thursday Congress passed a bill to help regulate stablecoins, a major victory for the crypto industry.

Two crypto-focused ETFs Ned Davis points to: iShares Bitcoin Trust, a fund designed to give investors a convenient way to hold Bitcoin, and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF, which invests in crypto-adjacent stocks like Robinhood Markets, Coinbase Global, and Circle Internet Group.

Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com