Fed, Trump Trade Talks Are Driving Stocks. Why This Bull Market Can Charge On.

(Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Sometimes, you can have too much of a good thing. Investors clearly don’t buy into that idea as they continue to pile into stocks ahead of the third anniversary of the current bull market.

Bank of America’s monthly poll of global fund managers sums up the mood. The net share who said they are overweight on stocks doubled to a seven-month high, even as the percentage who believe global equity markets are overvalued climbed to a record.

The survey shows that while professional investors think stocks look a little expensive, they still see this as a time to buy. It’s tough to argue with them. Two obvious catalysts could continue to drive markets higher, at least for the rest of 2025.

The first is the potential end of the trade war between the U.S. and China, with the world’s two largest economies seemingly on the brink of finalizing a deal to save TikTok. If that paves the way for a permanent trade agreement, it could put investors’ lingering fears about tariffs to bed. A report that China has banned the country’s companies from using Nvidia’s chips could complicate that picture, though.

The second is looming interest-rate cuts. As the Federal Reserve makes its latest rate decision today, traders right now are betting on 75 basis points of reductions by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Looser monetary policy ought to keep stocks chugging higher, although inflation is still running nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s target, which could make it harder for the central bank to cut aggressively.

Perhaps the only scenario that could spoil the party would be an unexpected recession, but there’s not much to suggest that right now: Retail sales data published on Tuesday came in well above expectations, signaling that American consumers are still dipping into their pockets despite worries about a weak labor market.

With trade fears easing and rates set to fall, the bull market looks set to charge into a fourth year and beyond.

— George Glover

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New Fed Gov. Stephen Miran’s First Challenge: Economic Projections

Economists and central bank watchers are wondering whether newly minted Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, who joined the policymaking committee with record speed after his Senate confirmation, will contribute to the Fed’s closely watched Summary of Economic Projections scheduled for release today.

• Federal Open Market Committee members release their anonymized projections of economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates after the March, June, September, and December meetings. It includes the closely watched “dot plot” and helps anchor long-term expectations.
• Most Fed officials use staff economists to help assemble data and analysis, but Miran may not yet have a staff. The projections are due Friday before the meeting begins but can be updated until the morning of the meeting’s second day. Miran was sworn in on Tuesday.
• Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke once said that Fed policymakers have a responsibility to give people “a full and compelling rationale” for their decisions to ensure that central banks maintain the “democratic legitimacy and independence” essential to sound monetary policymaking.
• Bank of America’s closely tracked Fund Manager Survey found that 26% of global investors surveyed are increasingly concerned about Trump’s relentless political pressure on the Fed. That percentage is up from less than 10% in August. It didn’t register as a concern in previous polls.

What’s Next: Whether Miran files his forecasts or decides to sit out the decision, like former Gov. Lael Brainard did in 2014, his first meeting highlights the Summary of Economic Projections’ central role in the present-day Fed and how indispensable it has become for investors trying to gauge the economy’s direction.

— Nicole Goodkind, Martin Baccardax, and Janet H. Cho

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TikTok’s U.S. Future Emerges as It Gets a New Deadline

The details of TikTok’s plan to continue operating its popular video sharing platform in the U.S. beyond today are emerging, and one striking feature is that the U.S. government will name a person to the newly formed, American-dominated board, The Wall Street Journal reported.

• An investor consortium for TikTok’s U.S. business includes Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz, with Oracle handling user data at its Texas operation, Journal reported. The new entity for U.S. TikTok will have 80% American investor ownership, while China’s ByteDance will have 20%.
• Oracle has already been working with U.S. TikTok, hosting user data here amid lawmaker concerns about national security. Those concerns led Congress and former President Joe Biden to force ByteDance to divest the app or face its ban from U.S. app stores.
• Current American investors, including Susquehanna International, KKR, and General Atlantic, will remain as part of the ownership group, the Journal reported.
• Current U.S. users would be asked to shift to a new app, which TikTok has built and is testing, the report said. When it comes to the algorithm that drives the platform, TikTok engineers would re-create a set of content-recommendation algorithms, using tech licensed from ByteDance.

What’s Next: President Trump, who has already extended the threat to ban the app in the U.S. three times, has pushed it out again while the new investor consortium finalizes the deal. The new deadline is Dec. 16.

— Angela Palumbo and Liz Moyer

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StubHub IPO Values Ticket Platform at $8.6 Billion

StubHub’s initial public offering, which priced at the midpoint of its intended range late Tuesday, doesn’t follow the pattern of a recent spate of stock debuts, many of which priced well above their ranges and popped when they began trading the next day. Wall Street was hoping for a hot ticket.

• The event ticket seller sold 34 million shares at a price of $23.50 a share. At that price, StubHub is raising $800 million and will be valued at $8.6 billion. Not too shabby considering eBay sold it to European ticket reseller Viagogo in 2020 for more than $4 billion.
• Strong first-day performances by other recent IPOs, including Figma and Gemini Space Station have been partly fueled by the relatively small number of shares available in an IPO, typically only about 10% to 15% of the total share count. That creates a frenzied rush for the limited supply.
• IPOs also can face pressure once they report earnings for the first time as public companies and after Wall Street analysts initiate coverage of the stocks. That’s exactly what has happened to Circle Internet and Figma, which are now both more than 55% below their peak prices.
• StubHub faces stiff competition from Ticketmaster owner Live Nation and other resellers such as Vivid Seats and privately held SeatGeek. Vivid Seats, which is publicly traded, has plunged more than 80% this year. The company cited “pressure on consumer spending” and competition.

What’s Next: StubHub co-founder and CEO Eric Baker has overwhelming control of the company with a nearly 88% stake in the voting shares. The stock should officially begin trading later today at the New York Stock Exchange as the ticker symbol STUB.

— Paul R. La Monica

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Food Companies, Restaurants Scramble to Feed High Chicken Demand

Americans are eating more chicken, and packaged food companies and restaurant chains are angling to feed this craving amid record high retail prices for beef. It’s boosting the bottom lines for food producers Tyson Foods and Pilgrim’s Pride , which are both expanding operations.

• The Agriculture Department projects chicken consumption to reach a record 102.7 pounds a person this year. Meanwhile, beef prices jumped 12.8% in August. In a Barron’s spot-check, the price of 80%/20% ground beef was $6.93 a pound at Walmart this week, up 40 cents from May.
• Tyson Foods’ chicken business operating income jumped 66% in the first quarter, while Pilgrim’s Pride, the largest U.S. pure chicken play, saw operating income increase 62%. Tyson is increasing capacity at its Kentucky facility, while Pilgrim’s is investing $400 million in a Georgia plant.
• Wingstop, a fast-casual chicken chain, has opened nearly 500 new restaurants over the past four quarters, and said June-quarter systemwide sales rose 14%. McDonald’s brought back its chicken wraps and added chicken tenders to its menu, while Yum! Brands’ Taco Bell is developing crispy chicken tacos, burritos, and nuggets.
• USDA has raised its projection for broiler production—chickens bred for meat consumption—this year, citing strong hatch data and lower feed costs, but has lowered its pricing forecast for the rest of 2025. Chicken demand typically declines in the fall and winter.

What’s Next: Chicken demand will likely stay elevated because diminished beef supplies—a big reason for their rising costs—aren’t expected to recover until 2027 or 2028, said Stephens analyst Pooran Sharma. Chicken farms are near maximum hatchery capacity right now.

— Evie Liu and Janet H. Cho

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Dear Quentin,

In 2013, my mother was removed from her California home and taken to a hospital after a wellness check was called in by a concerned neighbor. Within a month, her home had fraudulently been put up for sale and her vehicle stolen.

She hired a lawyer, a friend of her late husband, to investigate, and within days of signing an agreement with him, she passed away. The lawyer specialized in injury-recovery cases. I live in Pennsylvania and my sister lives in Washington state.

This lawyer took many years to move forward, overlooked by the California probate court. He had convinced us not to require a bond since he was a “family friend.” Instead of passing her inheritance on to my sister and me, he stole $400,000.

After I notified the California bar, he was disbarred in 2022. I hired an estate lawyer in California and eventually replaced the bad lawyer as administrator for the estate, but there is no money left in the account. The lawyer had written himself huge checks.

The case was picked up by the FBI, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and U.S. Postal Service investigators. I provided the paper trail. Three years later, there is still no outcome and the investigation against this lawyer seems to have stalled.

I’ve paid a new lawyer over $8,000 and have to pay a minimum bond every year. My sister and I are both in our late 60s now and want the inheritance money we should have received so many years ago.

What can we do?

— Desperate

Read the Moneyist’s response here.

— Quentin Fottrell

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Callum Keown