If Investors Like Rocket Lab Stock, They Should Love Firefly Shares.

A Firefly rocket takes off. (Courtesy OF Firefly)

Key Points

• Firefly Aerospace reported third-quarter sales of $30.8 million, exceeding Wall Street’s expectation of $27.5 million.
• Firefly projects 2025 sales between $150 million and $158 million, significantly higher than Wall Street’s $136 million projection.
• Firefly’s Alpha rocket can carry 1,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, compared with Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket, which carries 300 kilograms.

Space launch and technology provider Firefly Aerospace delivered better-than-expected third-quarter sales.

While that was good, it would be even better if investors started to treat the space technology start-up like its peer Rocket Lab .

Wednesday evening, Firefly announced a quarterly per-share loss of $1.50 from sales of $30.8 million. Wall Street was looking for a 42-cent loss from sales of $27.5 million.

Looking ahead, Firefly expects 2025 sales to land between $150 million and $158 million. Wall Street projects about $136 million. The company’s forecast implies fourth-quarter sales of about $52 million, while Wall Street currently projects about $36 million.

Firefly shares were up 17% in after hours trading. Shares fell 4.3% in regular trading, closing at $18.31, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively.

Sales matter more than earnings right now. Firefly isn’t profitable yet. Wall Street projects positive operating income by 2027. That is the same year as Rocket Lab.

The path to profitability is similar, but the two companies are valued very differently. Rocket Lab is valued at about $31 billion. Firefly is valued at closer to $3 billion. Rocket Lab trades for about 27 times estimated 2027 sales. Firefly trades for less than four times.

Rocket Lab is farther ahead on its development path than Firefly. Its Electron rocket is on pace to fly more than 20 times in 2025. Firefly’s Alpha rocket launched once in April, carrying a Lockheed Martin payload into orbit.

Still, the two occupy slightly different niches in the growing space economy. Alpha is designed for rapid deployment. It can take weeks to prep an Electron or SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket for launch.

Alpha has more carrying capacity than an Electron rocket, which can carry 300 kilograms to low Earth orbit. Firefly’s Alpha can carry 1,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit. Both are working on larger rockets.

(SpaceX’s Falcon 9 can carry about 23,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit, and should launch more than 150 times in 2025.)

Firefly sold stock to the public at $45 a share in August, but has faltered since then Shares traded as high as $73.80 shortly thereafter. They clocked in on Wednesday at $19.13 a share.

Second-quarter results, reported after the IPO, didn’t help. They were OK, with sales of $15.5 million, but Wall Street was expecting $16.8 million.

There was also a Firefly rocket lost during testing in late September. Shares dropped 21% on Sept. 30, closing at $29.32, making it harder for the shares to regain their early IPO magic.

Perhaps the third-quarter numbers will help investors refocus, raising their gaze toward the stars.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com