Firefly Stock Tumbles. Why Its Exploding Rocket Is a Big Deal.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carried the Firefly Blue Ghost lunar lander into orbit in January. The lander reached the moon in March. (GREGG NEWTON/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Firefly Aerospace stock tumbled after its Alpha Flight 7 rocket exploded during testing.
• The company stated that safety protocols were followed, all personnel are safe, and they are assessing the impact to the test stand.
• Firefly Aerospace, which completed its IPO in August at $45 per share, had a market value of about $5.4 billion on Monday.

Firefly Aerospace stock plunged after a company rocket exploded during testing.

Shares of the space technology provider fell 20.7%, closing at $29.32, while the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%.

The move came after the first stage of Firefly’s Alpha Flight 7 rocket exploded during testing.

“Proper safety protocols were followed, and all personnel are safe,” said the company in a Monday update. “The company is assessing the impact to its stage test stand…We learn from each test to improve our designs and build a more reliable system. We will share more information on the path forward at a later date.”

Controlling space technology is hard. SpaceX recently experienced an explosion of one of its massive Starship rockets during testing, damaging ground equipment. It has lost many rockets in the course of becoming a dominant launch services provider. SpaceX has launched its Falcon 9 rocket more than 120 times so far in 2025, accounting for more than half of all orbital launches worldwide.

The incident means more uncertainty for the company, wrote Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu in a Tuesday report. “Prior to the first stage loss, Firefly was confident that Flight 7 and Flight 8 would occur in 2025,” she added. Flight 7 won’t happen. Still, Kahyaoglu projects a “run rate” of 24 flights a year by 2028. That will generate some $360 million in revenue.

Kahyaoglu rates shares Buy and has a $60 price target for the stock. Overall, seven analysts cover the company. Four rate shares Buy. The average analyst price target is about $56 a share.

Firefly aims to be an end-to-end space solutions provider, offering launch, lunar landing, and orbital technologies. Its Blue Ghost lander successfully landed and operated on the moon in March. The company completed its IPO in August, selling stock at $45.

Shares traded as high as $73.80 before falling back. They closed at $36.96 on Monday, giving the company a market value of about $5.4 billion.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com