Fluence Energy Has High Hopes for the Fiscal Year. Analysts Are Torn Over the Stock.

Fluence Energy said it expects fiscal 2026 revenue in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.6 billion, above the $3.21 billion analysts were anticipating at the midpoint. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Fluence Energy projects fiscal 2026 revenue between $3.2 billion and $3.6 billion, implying 48% growth from the prior year at the midpoint.
• The company reported a record adjusted gross profit margin of 13.7% for the year and $1.3 billion in cash and liquidity.
• Quarterly revenue decreased to $1 billion from $1.2 billion, missing analyst consensus of $1.4 billion, and net income fell to $24.1 million.

Fluence Energy stock climbed on Tuesday on the energy storage company’s solid fiscal-year results, including an upbeat outlook in the face of ongoing production challenges.

The company guided for fiscal 2026 revenue between $3.2 billion and $3.6 billion after the bell Monday, above the $3.21 billion analysts were anticipating at the midpoint. At the middle of the range, this implies roughly 48% revenue growth from the prior year at the midpoint.

About 85% of the midpoint of Fluence’s revenue range was already secured in its backlog as of Sept. 30, the company said.

Fluence secured $1.4 billion worth of new orders in the quarter. Its backlog stood at $5.3 billion by the end of September, up from $4.5 billion last year.

Adjusted gross profit margin came in at 13.7% for the year, which president and CEO Julian Nebreda called a “record result for the company.” Fluence ended the year with total cash and liquidity of $1.3 billion, “representing the highest level of liquidity in company history,” Nebreda added.

In midmorning trading Tuesday, shares climbed 6.4% to $16.7. They wavered earlier in the session. The benchmark S&P 500 index traded flat.

UBS analyst Jon Windham described the latest results as a “positive,” given the company’s increasing focus on improving profitability in the face of lasting production delays at its U.S. manufacturing facilities.

His vote of confidence came even as quarterly results broadly missed expectations. Revenue slipped to $1 billion from $1.2 billion last year, missing the $1.4 billion consensus among analysts polled by FactSet. Net income plunged to $24.1 million in the quarter, down from $67.7 million in fiscal 2024.

“We remain cautiously optimistic given FLNC is well positioned to benefit from increasing volume demand for battery storage hardware broadly,” Windham wrote, echoing commentary from management.

This tailwind is partially offset by execution risks in both the U.S. and Vietnam, two locations where production capacity is ramping, he added. UBS rates Fluence at Neutral with a $8 price target.

Most on Wall Street remain sidelined. Thirteen of the 21 analysts tracked by FactSet rate Fluence Energy at Hold.

Guggenheim analysts are incrementally more negative, rating the stock at Sell with a $10 price target. “The company’s September quarter results exceeded our estimates at the gross margin and Ebitda level even as revenue undershot slightly, driven by production challenges,” the firm wrote following Monday’s report.

Much to the analysts’ surprise, roughly half of bookings for the quarter were from the Asia-Pacific region. “We had expected FLNC’s gearing to non-U. S. markets to decline as a result of competitive pressure from Chinese firms,” the Guggenheim team explained.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com