Ford Stock Rallied on Aluminum Shortage. The Pain Has Already Been Felt.

A fire at a supplier’s plant in New York is disrupting Lincoln Navigator production in Kentucky, according to The Wall Street Journal. (Photo by HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)

Key Points

• Ford is reducing production of five SUV models due to a September fire at a Novelis aluminum facility, expected to be offline until 2026.
• The Novelis plant supplies aluminum for an estimated 15,000 Ford trucks monthly, approximately one-third of total monthly production.
• Tariffs are projected to reduce Ford’s 2025 operating profits by about $2 billion, with an expected operating profit of $7 billion.

In a year with tariffs, trade wars, and changing electric-vehicle policies, Ford Motor investors have another thing to worry about: aluminum.

Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford was reducing production of five SUV models, following a September fire at a Novelis facility in New York. Novelis, a large supplier of aluminum sheet to the auto industry, says its plant is expected to be offline until 2026, which leaves auto makers scrambling for alternatives.

Ford didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment about the report.

Ford stock traded as low as $11.34, but rallied to close at $11.65, up 1%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%.

Most of investors’ aluminum-related pain might already have been felt. Ford stock was at about $12.70 a share before a significant drop in early October, after details of the fire emerged.

“There are several global aluminum suppliers, but capacity is tight, and overseas supply is subject to a 25% tariff,” wrote Citi analyst Mike Ward in a recent report. “By our estimates, the [Novelis] plant provides aluminum for 15,000 trucks a month at Ford, or about one-third of total monthly production.” He expects Ford to secure additional supply, but said he believes its production could be affected.

Ward rates Ford stock at Hold and has a target of $11 for the price. Overall, just 17% of analysts covering Ford stock rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target for Ford stock is about $11.30 a share.

Coming into Tuesday trading, Ford stock was up about 6% over the past 12 months. Investors have been dealing with new tariffs on imported cars and car parts as well as levies on imported steel and aluminum, all of which raise costs for Ford and other auto makers.

Ford says tariffs will shave about $2 billion off its 2025 operating profits. Wall Street expects Ford to report an operating profit of about $7 billion in 2025, down from more than $10 billion in 2024.

Along with tariffs, changing EV policies are disrupting EV production plans. The federal $7,500 EV purchase tax credit went away at the end of September.

How that will affect traditional auto makers is hard to say. They have invested billions in production capacity for EVs, but don’t make money selling them yet.

Car companies have dealt with a lot in 2025. The Novelis fire is just the latest.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com