Ford Stock Has Quintupled Tesla’s Gains. What’s Behind Its Meteoric Rise.

Ford CEO Jim Farley spoke to investors and analysts on Thursday during his company’s third-quarter earnings conference call. Numbers came in better than expected. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Ford’s stock has risen 37% this year, outperforming Tesla’s 8% gain, driven by tariffs, electric vehicles, and low expectations.
• Ford manufactures 80% of its cars domestically, reducing the impact of tariffs compared to the industry average of 50%.
• Ford anticipates $8 billion in operating profit this year, excluding a disruption at a supplier, compared with $10 billion in 2024.

Tesla is led by the world’s richest human, Elon Musk, and is on the cusp of breakthroughs with robo-taxis and robots that bulls hope will transform the global economy. Ford Motor, however, is having a better year.

There are good reasons for that.

Through Friday trading, Ford stock was up about 40% this year, more than five times the 7% gain of Tesla. Three things are mainly responsible for the increase: tariffs, electric vehicles, and, perhaps most important, low expectations.

Ford found itself in a relatively solid position to start 2025, after President Donald Trump announced his sectoral tariffs on imported cars and car parts.

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Ford stock has left Tesla’s in the dust.Source: FactSet

Created with Highcharts 9.0.1Ford Tesla 2025Oct.-50-40-30-20-1001020304050%

Ford manufactures about 80% of the cars it sells in America domestically, compared with the industry average of about 50%. That means tariffs hit Ford’s earnings less than others, including General Motors’.

GM stock was up 31% this year—good, but still trailing Ford.

Next up, electric vehicles. Through this year’s first three quarters, Ford’s EV business lost $3.6 billion. Looking ahead, the company probably will have to sell fewer EVs because lower emission standards implemented by the Trump administration make it more advantageous to sell large, gasoline-powered vehicles, where Ford makes most of its money.

Ford CEO Jim Farley projects EV sales will account for about 5% of new car sales in America for the foreseeable future. That’s about half the current levels. Getting beyond that will require more affordable EVs, he said on Ford’s earnings conference call after Wednesday’s close.

Finally, beating low expectations helps any stock. Investors and Wall Street started the year very worried about what tariffs would do to automotive earnings. For Ford, there were also issues of poor manufacturing quality and supplier disruptions that threatened its profits.

Things turned out to be better than feared. Ford will make about $8 billion in operating profit this year, excluding the impact of a fire at an aluminum supplier that is disrupting production of Ford trucks. Ford earned about $10 billion in 2024.

Everything adds up to outperformance. Tesla bulls would point out that this year’s gains in Tesla stock created some $120 billion in stock market value, about eight times what the move in Ford generated.

Ford investors, however, don’t care. They are happy with their big raise.

Ford investors, after all, tend to be value investors. Tesla investors care about growth potential. Ford stock trades for about 10 times estimated 2026 earnings. Tesla trades for closer to 190 times.

It all depends on what kind of investor you are.

Ford stock rose 12.4% on Friday, closing at $13.84, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up about 0.8% and 1%, respectively. Tesla stock fell 3.4%, closing at $433.72, leaving shares with a small loss since it reported earnings on Wednesday evening.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com