Freeport McMoRan Stock Jumps. Why It Got 2 More Buy Ratings.

A section of the Freeport-McMoRan open-pit copper mining complex in Morenci, Arizona, in 2024. (Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Freeport-McMoRan shares rose 4.1% after two positive analyst calls, with Citi upgrading the stock to Buy and Wells Fargo initiating coverage with a Buy rating.
• Citi projects copper prices to rally to $12,000 per ton by the first half of 2026, while Wells Fargo forecasts an average of $4.75 per pound in 2026.
• Despite a September accident at the Grasberg mine, which produces 3% of global copper, analysts expect Freeport to outperform due to anticipated tighter markets.

Freeport McMoRan stock rose Wednesday after the copper miner received not one but two positive calls from Wall Street after some volatility.

Shares added 5.3%, closing at $42.85. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished flat.

One of the positive calls came from Citi analyst Alexander Hacking. He upgraded shares to Buy from Hold and kept his price target at $48 a share.

“Citi expects copper to rally to $12,000/ton in [first-half 2026],” wrote Hacking. That is about $6 per pound and up from the current price, closer to $5. Higher prices are always good for commodity producers.

One reason for higher prices is that less metal is coming from Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which suffered an accident in September that has restricted production. Grasberg produces about 3% of global copper output.

“We acknowledge that there is circularity on Grasberg,” added Hacking. The mine coming back online in 2026 will ease the balance between the supply of copper and demand. “But Freeport can outperform any fade in copper, assuming that Grasberg outcomes are being de-risked.” That is another way of saying that things at Grasberg may have gotten as bad as they are going to.

Freeport stock was north of $45 before the Grasberg accident. At less than $42, the stock already reflects plenty of bad news.

The second positive came from Wells Fargo analyst Timna Tanners. She launched coverage of Freeport, calling it her top pick, with a Buy rating and $47 price target for shares.

“We finally agree with copper bulls, and anticipate tighter markets in 2026 from unexpected supply disruptions,” she wrote on Tuesday. Her forecast of the average price for copper in 2026 is $4.75 per pound, up from $4.43 in 2025; although she noted that more copper supply is expected to come online in 2027.

That is still a long way away. Citi and Wells Fargo expect Freeport to rally between now and then.

Overall, 64% of analysts covering Freeport rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. The average analyst price target is about $47.

The Buy-rating ratio dipped from about 68% to 57% after the Grasberg accident, before new ratings and upgrades sent it higher again. The average analyst price target for Freeport stock was closer to $52 before the accident.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com