Freeport-McMoRan Stock Has Been a Copper Winner. How to Know When to Sell.

A mining truck drives down a winding mine canyon road in Xinjiang, China. (Haitong Yu / Getty Images)

Copper has taken center stage after President Donald Trump proposed a steep 50% tariff on the metal. On Tuesday, the sector felt additional pressure as both Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper were hit with analyst downgrades. Have these copper giants run too far, too fast? Freeport is clearly in the lead, up 15% year to date, almost double Southern’s 2025 performance. A key driver behind Freeport’s relative strength is its meaningful exposure to gold, which has surged sharply amid macro uncertainty.

A touch of caution may be warranted before jumping into Freeport as the stock appears poised to fill the gap created on June 25 near $42, just before a sharp 7% surge on June 26, which was accompanied by double its average daily volume. On the upside, Freeport recorded a bullish golden cross, with its 50-day simple moving average crossing above the 200-day SMA, a classic signal of budding momentum. Notably, the 200-day SMA has been flat since early June, previously sloping lower, suggesting the secular longer term outlook for the stock is improving.

Looking at the longer term picture, the weekly chart of Freeport offers essential insights into where this trade could stumble. Since early 2025, the significant $40 level has been a major battleground, serving as resistance from January through March and again in May. But June’s decisive breakout above this threshold suggests that $40 has now likely flipped into a solid support level. Investors should keep a close eye out for a weekly close below $40, which would be a clear warning sign to consider exiting the position.

Sometimes too much strength can be a weakness.

Write to Doug Busch at douglas.busch@barrons.com