Gold Heads for a Record. These Stocks Are Benefiting.

Gold prices have gained around 66% this year so far. (Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg)

Key Points

• Gold has risen over 60% this year, surpassing $4,000 an ounce for the first time and attracting significant ETF inflows.
• Global gold demand reached a record 1,313 tons in the three months ending October, driven by ETF and central-bank purchases.
• Gold futures increased 1% to $4,372.50 a troy ounce, nearing a new settlement record, amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Gold extended its extraordinary 2025 gains in early Monday trading and is on pace for a fresh record high, as precious metals prices continue to surge amid a combination of renewed inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.

The precious metal has risen more than 60% so far this year, topping the $4000 an ounce mark for the first time on record and drawing the biggest inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds since the 2020 pandemic.

Global gold demand, meanwhile, is also surging. Data from the World Gold Council pegs the overall tally of gold purchases at 1,313 tons over the three months ending in October, the highest on record, powered by both ETF and central-bank purchases.

Gold futures in New York were up 1% to $4,372.50 a troy ounce in early trading. That puts them on track to break the previous settlement record of $4,359.40 reached on Oct. 20.

“The move reflects renewed demand for the metal as expectations build for another Federal Reserve rate cut next year,” wrote David Morrison, a market analyst at Trade Nation, in a research note. “This helps to reduce the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets, like gold.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, also notes that gold’s steady performance amid the recent rise in Treasury bond yields suggests the metal has “reinforced its role as a hedge against fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty rather than a simple rates trade.”

Similar gains into next year, however, could be more difficult to replicate.

“After an exceptional run, near-term upside looks more limited,” he said. “However, any correction is more likely to trigger rotation within the complex rather than outright liquidation, with gold now appearing relatively inexpensive versus silver on a relative basis.”

“We remain constructive on precious metals into 2026 amid tight conditions in the physical market and continued investor demand for hard assets driven by political and economic uncertainty,” he added.

Gold mining stocks have also had extraordinary gains this year, with Newmont rising more than 160% this year and Barrick Mining surging 174%. Newmont was last marked 2.7% higher on the session, with Barrick Mining up 1.7%. Freeport-McMoRan was last seen 0.8% higher.

However, Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, isn’t sure mining growth will act as a headwind for prices.

“Gold mine supply growth tends to be slow and relatively inelastic,” she said. “Since 2019, global gold production has remained very stable.”

“Gold demand is driven more by macro factors—real yields, the US dollar, central bank buying, and investment flows—changes in mine output rarely exert strong downward pressure on prices,” she added.

Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com and Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com