Gold Has Shone Through Tariffs, AI Fears, Global Risk. Why 2026 Looks Bright.

(SEBASTIAN DERUNGS/AFP via Getty Images)

The Three Wise Men may have struggled for a third gift if they were shopping today—and not because of a bull market in frankincense and myrrh.

This was gold ’s year. The yellow metal trounced most other assets in 2025, with prices gaining more than 70% and hitting record highs more than 50 times, most recently on Monday.

Two fundamental drivers for gold’s advance were buying by central banks—China chief among them—and an influx of investors into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold the precious metal.

In a turbulent year during which markets were disrupted by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty but boosted by artificial intelligence and interest-rate cuts that weakened the dollar, gold became many things for many people.

The precious metal was an obvious hedge against global uncertainty for central banks and retail investors alike, but also performed like a risk asset —rising with stocks. The trend swept up silver , too, the price of which has jumped more than 130% this year.

Those who tout cryptocurrency as “digital gold” should see the irony. Long a barometer for risk appetite, Bitcoin barely budged during a period in which the historic treasury asset surged like a meme stock instead.

Demand trends and supply constraints suggest gold will continue to shine. Prices touched $4,500 per ounce on Tuesday, and Goldman Sachs sees a rise to $4,900 by this time next year, with J.P. Morgan eyeing $5,000.

Gold’s rally is also grounding. The future promised by AI is exciting and lucrative, but there is something to be said for investors flocking to an asset that has been treasured since time immemorial. Nvidia stock is ever-tempting, but the trio from the East would still look clever buying gold today.

—Jack Denton

*** Get more of the journalism you love. Choose Barron’s as a preferred source in Google.

***

Gold and Silver Set Record Highs and Could Head Higher

Despite signs that a risk-on trade is back in stocks—the Russell 2000 led indexes higher on Monday and the Cboe’s volatility index was down to the lowest level of the year—gold and silver prices are at record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions. They could head even higher in 2026.

• Holdings by central banks are way above historical levels, and there is untapped demand from western investors. Analysts like Trevor Yates from Global X ETFs see it as the early innings of a bigger rally in precious metals, which are typically investor safe havens.
• Prices are rising after President Donald Trump escalated tensions with Venezuela. In addition, a Russian general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow on Monday in an unconfirmed but suspected attack by Ukraine. Separately, the U.S. launched rockets at 70 different Islamic State targets in Syria on Friday.
• Gold rose to $4,469.40 a troy ounce, a record high according to Dow Jones Market Data and surpassing October’s peak of $4,336. Some predict gold could reach $4,900 next year. Silver also rose to a record $68.56.
• One experienced commodities trader told MarketWatch that hard assets such as commodities and real estate will become a crucial part of investors’ portfolios in 2026. This trader told MarketWatch that they are fearsome of a second wave of inflation such as that seen during the 1970s.

What’s Next: Crude oil has been falling from recent peak levels amid growing signs of an oversupply. Goldman Sachs analysts see the average price of Brent crude around $56 a gallon next year, and the average price of WTI around $52. Both outlooks are lower than current levels.

— Rupert Steiner and Liz Moyer

***

Oracle’s Ellison Puts Guarantee on Paramount’s Warner Bros. Bid

The bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery heated up again after Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison personally guaranteed the $40.4 billion of equity financing for the offer by his son David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance. Rival bidder Netflix detailed the $25 billion in bank loans it has lined up.

• Paramount has extended its tender offer to Jan. 21 and said it’ll pay $5.8 billion if regulators block the deal, higher than an earlier offer. It is sticking with its offer for $30 a share for the whole company. Netflix is bidding for the movie studio and streaming operations.
• Financing has become a key battleground in the fight to own Warner, especially after the board rejected Paramount’s offer. Netflix lined up a $5 billion unsecured revolving credit and two $10 billion senior unsecured delayed-draw term loans. They replace a previous bridge loan commitment.
• Gerry Cardinale, the chief investment officer of RedBird Capital, which is backing Paramount’s bid, told CNBC that Larry Ellison’s trust is behind the guarantee. The Ellison Family Trust is where Larry Ellison’s 1.2 billion shares of Oracle reside, valued around $230 billion.
• Larry Ellison’s Oracle is also getting a 15% stake in a new U.S. TikTok, which the U.S. forced to sell from its Chinese owners. A deal is expected to close in January. Pew Research Center found that 37% of U.S. adults use TikTok, but the usage is 63% for adults under 30.

What’s Next: Paramount’s stock rising 4% on Monday suggests that investors think its amended offer will boost its odds of success. Warner is a must-have for Paramount. Without the HBO Max platform, and the rights to characters like Harry Potter and Batman, it would struggle to compete with Netflix and Walt Disney.

— George Glover and Adam Levine

***

Trump Deals U.S. Offshore Wind Industry Another Blow

The Trump administration dealt another blow to the U.S. offshore wind industry, pausing leases for all large-scale offshore projects in construction. That affects operations along the East Coast from Massachusetts to Virginia, and projects already under way that aimed to generate enough power to light up Manhattan.

• Dominion Energy’s wind farm off the coast of Virginia Beach, Va., was one of five leases paused. The Interior Department cited the need to assess national security risks, such as potential radar interference. The industry has been under pressure since President Donald Trump started his second term.
• Projects already in development have been in limbo; the administration temporarily halted construction at one site in New York in April and another off the coast of Connecticut in August. Construction on Dominion’s Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project, or CVOW, was expected to finish by the end of 2026.
• Dominion, a Barron’s stock pick in November, pushed back on the administration’s national-security concerns in a statement, arguing that stopping the project will trigger energy inflation, imperil jobs, and threaten power-grid reliability for military installations in coastal Virginia.
• Other paused leases include two being developed by Danish company Orsted and the Empire Wind project in New York led by Norwegian company Equinor, which said it was evaluating the order and seeking more information from the U.S. Orsted didn’t respond to a request for comment.

What’s Next: Evercore ISI analysts said they were optimistic Dominion’s CVOW project would get completed. Its customers are already paying for the power generation, supporting bringing it online as quickly as possible, they said. Voters are concerned about affordability as the midterm election approaches.

— Nate Wolf

***

FanDuel Launches Its Prediction Market. Parlays Are Coming Soon.

Will the San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl? That’s a question some FanDuel sports bettors will now be able to bet on—as the company on Monday launched a prediction market in five states through a partnership with CME Group.

• FanDuel Predicts will allow people to buy so-called event contracts based on economic data, cryptocurrency prices, the outcomes of cultural events—and, of course, sports. Event contracts are legal nationwide and built around yes/no questions.
• Investors seemed fairly impressed by the latest step in FanDuel’s effort to meet a challenge from companies such as Kalshi and Robinhood Markets. Shares of the sportsbook’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment, ended the day up 1.1%. CME was up 1.5%.
• FanDuel Predicts is now available in Alabama, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and South Carolina, according to a news release. The announcement comes just days after rival DraftKings debuted its own prediction market in 38 states.
• “In addition to financial markets, sports contracts will be available across baseball, basketball, football, and hockey in states where online sports betting is not yet legal, except on tribal lands,” the release said.

What’s Next: FanDuel has a history of launching products in phases. James Cooper, its senior vice president of new ventures, said the five-state launch will give the company a sense of how people interact with the product, so it can refine its approach before expanding to more states in 2026.

— Nick Devor and George Glover

***

—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner