Google Vs Nvidia for AI Dominance? Why That’s Only Half the Story and 4 Other Things to Know Today.

Nvidia and Alphabet are embroiled in an intense battle for AI supremacy. At least that’s how the stock market is viewing it.

The launch of Google’s Gemini 3 chatbot last week got investors excited about Alphabet’s prospects. Reports that Meta may use the company’s tensor processing unit, or TPU, chips have now made the market question whether Google can seriously challenge Nvidia’s dominance.

Nvidia remains the world’s most valuable company, closing with a market capitalization of $4.3 trillion Tuesday. But Alphabet isn’t far behind, valued at $3.9 trillion. It’s the narrowest gap between the two since February, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Nvidia was worth $2 trillion more than Alphabet just over three months ago.

Sandwiched in between the two sits Apple , which is yet to really impress anyone with anything AI related. Investors don’t seem to care, though —the stock closed at a record high Tuesday.

As Apple plays the tortoise role—slow and steady wins the race—the sprint between the two hares is what’s captivating investors.

The Google parent’s shares are up 8% this week, while Nvidia’s are down 0.6%. That trend was set to continue Wednesday, judging by premarket action.

The moves clearly struck a nerve at Nvidia HQ. “We’re delighted by Google’s success,” the company said in a totally unnecessary statement. “Nvidia is a generation ahead of the industry,” it added.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. Nvidia will be more than alright—it dominates the AI chip market with around a 90% share. And its dominance lies in GPUs, different from Google’s TPUs. The competition from Alphabet is perhaps more concerning for other GPU competitors such as Advanced Micro Devices.

The AI fable is still at the stage where today’s developments can define the world’s tech leaders for the next generation and beyond. Racing into an early lead doesn’t guarantee anything—it’s a marathon not a sprint.

—Callum Keown

***The Barron’s Daily won’t be published on Thursday because of the holiday, but we will return Friday.

What’s Ahead for Markets in 2026? From “Liberation Day” tariffs to torrid rallies in AI stocks and gold, this year has been full of surprises. Join us on Dec. 11 at noon for discussions with investment strategists and money managers about the outlook for the economy and markets in 2026—and how to position your portfolio for success. Sign up here

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Dell Boosted By AI Demand, But Memory Chip Costs Hit HP

Artificial intelligence is driving demand for Dell’s computers and servers for artificial intelligence, but raising costs and reducing printer sales for HP. Dell is benefiting from demand for its computers and servers for AI, for customers including Elon Musk’s xAI and Coreweave.

• Dell’s October-quarter earnings of $2.59 a share beat Wall Street’s consensus estimate, and revenue of $27 billion was roughly in line with expectations. Current-quarter guidance of $31 billion to $32 billion was stronger than expected.
• Dell Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said AI momentum is accelerating in the second half of 2025. “Dell is winning in AI because of our unique ability to engineer bespoke high-performance solutions, rapidly deploy large, complex clusters, and provide global support.”
• HP CEO Enrique Lores said skyrocketing prices for memory chips will be a “fairly significant” drag of around 30 cents on its current fiscal year as guidance fell short. Fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 93 cents a share and revenue of $14.64 billion both beat estimates.
• Personal-systems revenue increased 8% from a year ago to $10.4 billion, partly driven by rising demand for AI personal computers and Windows 11. But printer business revenue fell 4% from a year earlier to $4.3 billion, because companies are prioritizing AI, not upgrading printers.

What’s Next: HP is cutting 4,000 to 6,000 workers by 2028 to mitigate the rising costs of memory chips. It forecasts fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of 73 cents to 81 cents a share and full-year earnings of $2.90 to $3.20 a share, both below expectations.

— Tae Kim, Angela Palumbo, and Janet H. Cho

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Here’s What Could Sway a Divided Fed on Interest Rate Cut

The latest economic data likely won’t change hearts and minds at the Federal Reserve ahead of its December meeting. But while most are expecting a quarter-point cut then, recent remarks by officials show a deep divide about whether above-target inflation or a weak labor market are the greater risk.

• The Fed has been forced to deliberate with fewer sources of economic data because of the government shutdown. Tuesday’s September data dump didn’t provide much clarity. The producer price index rose 0.3% then versus a drop of 0.1% in August. Core prices only rose 0.1% versus August’s revised 0.3% gain.
• Economists estimate the core personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, will rise 0.2%, possibly 0.3%, in September from August. That is a fairly moderate read, but on an annual basis, core inflation is likely still running at 2.8%. The Fed’s target is 2%.
• September retail sales rose 0.2% in September from August. That’s notably softer than the 0.6% increase in August from July and below expectations. Excluding autos, building materials, and restaurant spending, the number dropped 0.1% for the month. That suggests stress among lower and middle income consumers.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates inflation-adjusted gross domestic product growth was 4.2% for the third quarter, while the New York Fed’s Nowcast estimate of 2.3% is more modest, but still an above-trend result.

What’s Next: The Fed Beige Book could help the Fed’s decision. It is expected to describe muted economic activity across the country. LPL Financial’s chief economist Jeff Roach will be looking for any shift in businesses’ willingness to eat the cost of tariffs, while Citi’s Veronica Clark says an uptick in layoffs could be revealing.

— Megan Leonhardt

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Spending Slowing as Retailers Enter Holiday Shopping Season

The main takeaway from the Tuesday retail sales report is that spending growth slowed toward the end of the summer, especially for discretionary items. Of the 13 categories tracked by the Census Bureau, five showed monthly sales declines, largely in categories hard hit by tariffs: electronics, appliances, and sporting goods.

• Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said Americans are in value-hunting mode, spending more on basics and being selective about discretionary purchases. Spending at food and beverage stores and health and personal care stores rose by 0.2% and 1.1%, respectively, in September.
• Retailers have mixed momentum entering the crucial holiday shopping season. Department store operator Kohl’s beat November quarter expectations and raised its outlook, reporting a surprise adjusted profit of 10 cents a share. Full-year net sales are expected to drop 3.5% to 4%, less than previously forecast.
• The improved guidance is an “encouraging sign” given that department stores in general have struggled to drive store traffic and claw back market share in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, wrote Dana Telsey, CEO of Telsey Advisory Group. But it will take time to win back consumers.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods, on the other hand, missed expectations for profit, but sales growth of 5.9% beat forecasts. It has been weighed by the acquisition of Foot Locker, though same-store sales rose 5.7% on increases in average ticket and transactions.

What’s Next: Dick’s plans to “clean out the garage” at Foot Locker by clearing inventory and closing underperforming stores. Hours before the earnings report, the sporting goods retailer announced the appointment of Matthew Barnes as president of Foot Locker International, effective Dec. 3.

— Sabrina Escobar and Mackenzie Tatananni

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Severe Weather Threatens Thanksgiving Travel

The busiest-ever Thanksgiving travel season, including a record number of air passengers and road warriors, will be complicated by snowy weather and colder temperatures across the northern U.S. Airlines are bracing for delays over the most traveled American holiday, having just put the shutdown behind them.

• United Airlines’ Thanksgiving bookings spiked 15% after Nov. 12, when the shutdown ended. It expects about 6.6 million passengers between Nov. 20 and Dec. 2, the most it’s ever flown for the holiday. But the weekend will also be the snowiest in 39 years, Weathertrends360 CEO Bill Kirk said.
• Kirk said snow will contribute to major travel headaches on Sunday, the busiest of the weekend travel days. United said passengers can seek refunds for delayed, canceled, or disrupted flights, Southwest said passengers can request refunds anytime a flight is canceled for any reason. Delta directed refund-seekers to its website.
• But the Trump administration canceled a Biden administration rule requiring airlines to pay cash compensation to passengers for significant flight delays. Airlines are instead allowed to set their own policies.
• Airlines for America expects more than 31 million passengers to travel between Nov. 21 and Dec. 1, a record. U.S. airlines have added 45,000 more seats compared with 2024, and will be flying about 2.8 million passengers a day.

What’s Next: AAA projects that a record 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1 and Monday, including 73.3 million who will drive. Thanksgiving is the single busiest travel holiday, AAA says.

— Janet H. Cho

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Dear Quentin,

My college-age kids are inheriting $150,000 each, mostly from a 401(k) so the money is taxable. I am still going to pay for college, so this money is likely to be saved for the purchase of homes in 10 years or so.

My thought is they should start withdrawing it from the 401(k) now while they have little or no income and taxes will be low. Where would you invest it? Is there a way, with their permission, that I can oversee these funds at least until they are a bit older?

— The Mother

Read the Moneyist’s response here.

— Quentin Fottrell

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—Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O’Donnell, Rupert Steiner