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Alphabet Could Hit a $4 Trillion Valuation Today as Gemini Success Scrambles AI Trade

Nov 25, 2025 07:03:00 -0500 by Martin Baccardax | #AI #Street Notes

Google parent Alphabet could top the $4 trillion market for the first time on Tuesday. (Getty Images)

Key Points

Alphabet stock extended its record run early Tuesday while stoking big moves in megacap tech stocks heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. A report that suggests the Google parent was looking to deepen its challenge to Nvidia’s dominance in artificial-intelligence processors was boosting the stock.

Alphabet, which rose to a record high valuation of $3.84 trillion on Monday and extended its advance this year to around 68%, isn’t only gaining favor from the launch of its Gemini 3 chatbot but also the potential sale of its AI-powering tensor processing units (TPUs) to Facebook parent Meta Platforms .

The Information reported that Meta was looking to either buy Google’s TPU systems, which are currently used for Gemini 3 as well as AI start-up Anthropic’s chatbot, or rent them as part of a broader cloud infrastructure deal.

The moves highlight Google’s emerging presence in the AI semiconductor space, where Nvidia maintains a commanding lead in terms of market share thanks to cutting-edge systems and software that remain the benchmark for computing performance.

“Gemini shows that the company has the chops to go toe-to-toe, from a large language model perspective, against OpenAI,” Deepwater Asset Management co-founder Gene Munster told CNBC on Monday. “That’s encouraging for investors that its culture has been reignited to compete.”

Google’s wide array of businesses, from search, to advertising, to cloud computing, however, makes it a compelling tech play at a time when investors are worried about the level of debt and spending some companies are committing to their AI ambitions.

Bank of America data, in fact, suggests the five biggest hyperscalers, which include Microsoft, Amazon.com , and Oracle as well as Google and Meta, will see capital spending exceed their collective operating cashflows as early as next year.

Alphabet’s emergence also is shaking up the megacap tech leader board at a time when broader market volatility is trending higher thanks in part to questions over the sustainability of the current AI spending race.

Alphabet shares have risen nearly 35% over the past six weeks, adding around $1 trillion in overall market value. The stock was rising 4% in premarket trading Tuesday, putting a $4 trillion valuation within reach.

Nvidia, meanwhile, has slipped by around 0.33% over the same period, and has fallen nearly 12% from its all-time high on Oct. 29. Nvidia is the world’s most valuable company with a market value of about $4.3 trillion.

Nvidia fell 4.1% premarket trading to $175.11, which would be the lowest level since around mid-September.

Advanced Micro Devices, which fell 3.8% in premarket trading, also largely has traded flat over the past six weeks. AMD’s nascent challenge to Nvidia’s dominant position in AI chipmaking stalled earlier this month when its third-quarter earnings report included an outlook for profit margins that failed to impress Wall Street.

Ruben Dalfovo, an investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said Google’s recent foray into the AI chip space is less about replacing the current market leaders and more about offering “bargaining power” for the biggest hyperscalers who “no longer have to accept whatever pricing and supply Nvidia offers.”

“Alphabet’s advantage is that its chips are already wrapped in products that hundreds of millions of people use daily, from Search and Maps to YouTube and Photos, and now in the Gemini 3 AI suite,” he added. “That makes its silicon a tool to deepen an existing moat, not a new business it has to sell from scratch.”

“For Nvidia, the long-term risk isn’t just rival chips, but key customers like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and others steadily internalizing more of the value chain,” Dalfovo said.

Write to Martin Baccardax at martin.baccardax@barrons.com