Government Shutdown Enters Day 9. Why a Deal Hasn’t Happened, Yet.

People head to the gates at the Nashville International Airport on Monday. The FAA has said staffing shortages have led to delays there, in Boston, and in Chicago, among other cities. (Seth Herald/Getty Images)

Key Points

• The U.S. government shutdown continues into a ninth day with no formal negotiations or movement from either party.
• A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll indicates 65% of Americans believe Democrats should accept current spending levels to end the shutdown.
• The Federal Aviation Administration has reported staffing shortages causing flight delays in multiple cities this week.

An endgame is taking shape as the U.S. government shutdown stretches into a ninth day, though with both sides seemingly entrenched and no formal negotiations taking place, it could take a while longer to reach a deal.

As of Thursday morning, neither Republicans nor Democrats had shown much movement from their opening positions. On Wednesday, lawmakers again failed to pass a bill to reopen the government, with no lawmakers switching sides. Republicans still want to pass a continuing resolution that keeps spending at current levels until Nov. 21, while Democrats want to add an extension of healthcare subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year.

Both sides think they are winning the messaging war and can point to polls bolstering their case. A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll highlighted by the White House said that 65% of Americans said Democrats should end the shutdown by accepting a bill to keep current levels of spending, rather than holding out for healthcare subsidies.

But in the same poll, 53% of respondents blamed Republicans for the shutdown versus 47% who blamed Democrats. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R., La.) has said he thinks the needle is moving in Republicans’ favor as the shutdown drags on.

The next important date to watch is Oct. 15, when many members of the military could miss their first paychecks. But even that might not be the forcing mechanism some policy watchers think it is, says Stephen Myrow, managing partner with Beacon Policy Advisors.

Some lawmakers, including a couple of Democrats, have said they think about $150 billion in Pentagon funding approved by Congress earlier this year could be repurposed to pay troops during the shutdown if the Pentagon chooses to.

“Right now everyone is wound up on paying troops but this is an easy way around that,” said Myrow. Trump himself has promised troops won’t miss their pay, he noted.

Instead, Myrow said, it will take a more general breakdown in basic government services before the public gets angry enough to force lawmakers back to the table. That is what ended the shutdown in 2019: A spate of sickouts by air-traffic controllers grounded flights headed to some destinations and led to major delays at airports throughout the country. Already this week, the Federal Aviation Administration has said staffing shortages have led to delays at airports in Nashville, Boston, and Chicago, among other cities.

Once the sides do feel enough pain, there does appear to be a path to ending the shutdown coming into view.

Trump earlier this week said he was open to negotiations on the healthcare subsidies that Democrats have asked for. Democratic leaders could enter the negotiations, agreeing to reopen the government as the talks proceed, and make the argument that they will have another opportunity to shut down the government in November if Republicans don’t agree to an extension, Myrow said.

It points to an end to this shutdown, and lays the groundwork for another one.

Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com