Why Airport Delays Could Surge During a Shutdown

A security checkpoint at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

Key Points

• A government shutdown could lead to longer security lines and canceled flights if it extends beyond a few weeks.
• During the 2018-2019 shutdown, airport screener absenteeism rose from 3% to 10%, causing longer traveler wait times.
• A shutdown would pause field training for air-traffic controllers and halt hiring, potentially worsening a long-term shortage.

Travelers who put off summer vacations to enjoy lower costs and fewer crowds this fall could be in for an unpleasant surprise if a government shutdown starts this week.

While air-traffic controllers and airport screeners are considered essential workers and are required to keep working during a shutdown, neither group gets paid until funding is restored. That could result in longer security lines or even canceled flights if the shutdown lasts longer than a few weeks.

During the 35-day shutdown in 2018 to 2019, an uptick in controllers calling in sick caused flight delays at several airports, including New York’s La Guardia, Newark, and Philadelphia right before funding got restored in late January.

Absenteeism among airport screeners, meanwhile, rose from a typical 3% to 10%, which resulted in longer lines for travelers.

That is likely the worst that will come of a shutdown for travelers. Passports will still get processed since that is paid for by fees. Safety inspections will continue, as will maintenance and operation of navigational aids used by controllers and pilots.

Other impacts will be more indirect, such as the potential exacerbation of the long-term shortage of air-traffic controllers. While initial training for new recruits at the agency’s Oklahoma City facility will continue, additional field training at control centers will go on pause until funding is resumed. Hiring will also be put on hold.

If the shutdown ends quickly, those delays may not have a long-term impact on the number of air-traffic controllers. But with few signs of a compromise, odds of a shutdown are currently at 73% on betting site Polymarket.

Analysts at Bank of America wrote last week that they expect a shutdown to last no longer than two weeks, “because we think Democrats will be unwilling to incur the political cost of a lengthy shutdown ahead of next year’s midterms.”

Others see one dragging on much longer since there is no hard deadline to catalyze a compromise. That could result in as many as 40% of the more than two million federal civilian workers being put on leave, and much more widespread pain than long lines at the airport.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com