A Government Shutdown Could Start In Two Weeks. What to Know.

A view of the Capitol Building during the “Protect Healthcare, Lower Costs” press conference on Capitol Hill on Sept. 11, 2025. (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Economic Security Project)

Key Points

About This Summary

• Republicans are expected to release a bill this week to fund the government past Sept. 30.
• Democrats may not support the bill unless Republicans agree to negotiate on healthcare and Medicaid cuts.
• If no deal is reached by Sept. 30, it could result in furloughs for federal workers and closed parks.

Republicans are expected to release a bill this week that will fund the government past Sept. 30. While that sounds like a lot of time to push it through, lawmakers face several big hurdles to make it to the finish line.

The biggest issue is that Democratic leaders have indicated that they won’t support any bill unless Republicans negotiate with them over things like restoring funding for marketplace health plans and rolling back Medicaid cuts.

While Republicans could theoretically get a temporary funding bill through the House of Representatives without Democrats’ support because of their 219 to 213 majority, they would need a few Democrats to side with them in the Senate to secure the 60 votes they need there.

President Donald Trump urged Republicans to “stick TOGETHER to fight back against the Radical Left Democrat demands” and vote yes on a “CLEAN” short term funding bill in a Monday post on Truth Social.

Two Republican House members, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, have already signaled their intention to break ranks, however, putting more pressure on the rest to fall in line.

“I cannot support one that ends funding right before a major holiday to jam us with an Omnibus,” Rep. Spartz wrote on X. “I’ve seen this playbook too many times.”

The other issue is that there aren’t many working days left to hash out a deal. There are only seven days left, including today, because both chambers are in recess next week for the Jewish high holiday Rosh Hashanah.

The bill released this week will likely be a seven-week stopgap funding measure that will extend until just before Thanksgiving, Sen. James Lankford, a Republican from Oklahoma told CBS Face the Nation Sunday.

“What we’re currently arguing right now about is a seven-week extension on the current budget spending, to say we’re not changing anything, but for the next seven weeks, let’s just hold it until we get a longer budget agreement and can actually come to agreement,” Lankford said.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has also indicated that Republicans will try to push through a temporary funding measure. “We may need a stopgap funding measure, a CR, for a short period of time to allow negotiations to continue,” he told Fox News Sunday.

That may not be good enough for Democrats. “Republicans have to come to meet with us in a true bipartisan negotiation to satisfy the American people’s need on healthcare and lower people’s costs,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said last week. “Without that, they won’t get our votes plain and simple.”

As of midday Monday, betting site Polymarket placed odds of a shutdown at around 50%. If no deal is reached by Sept. 30, it could result in federal workers being furloughed, national parks being closed to the public, and a possible delay in food benefits. Social Security and Medicare benefits wouldn’t be affected, however, and mail would still be delivered.

Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com