Halloween Scares Up Worries About Higher Candy Prices

Shoppers have noticed higher Halloween candy prices, especially for chocolate, on retail shelves. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Key Points

• Americans are projected to spend a record $13.1 billion this Halloween, including $3.9 billion on candy.
• Chocolate prices have significantly increased, with a six-pack of Hershey bars rising from $4.97 to $8.24 at one Walmart since May.
• Higher cocoa prices are contributing to increased candy costs, with chocolate prices up 8.1% in August compared to the previous year.

The concept of “fun-sized” candy never lived up to its name, and this Halloween is no exception. But beware: trick-or-treaters and the households that indulge them are going to find higher-priced chocolate, and less of it.

Americans are expected to spend a record $13.1 billion this Halloween, according to the National Retail Federation, including $4.3 billion on costumes, $4.2 billion on decorations, and $3.9 billion on candy. That would surpass last year’s $11.6 billion in spending and the previous record of $12.2 billion in 2023.

It works out to about $114.45 a person, which would also be a record.

But that’s not necessarily because of a surge in generosity.

“Halloween candy prices are frighteningly high this year with [consumers] getting less value in bundled bags than before,” said Judy Ganes, a commodities expert and president of JGanes Consulting, a food and agricultural consultancy. To compensate for higher cocoa prices, chocolate manufacturers have been reformulating recipes, repackaging products, and yes, raising prices.

“One by one, most of the large manufacturers are introducing new products that are chocolate-y, but have less chocolate,” she said, adding that candy makers are offering variety packs that contain less chocolate and more of other candies as a way to hold down costs.

Hershey, M&M Mars, and Mondelez International, the maker of Oreo, Ritz, and Toblerone, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Chocolate prices at the supermarket have noticeably risen. A six-pack of 1.55-ounce Hershey bars that cost $4.97 in mid-May now costs $8.24 at a Walmart in Virginia, according to a Barron’s price check. At an Albertson’s grocery in Phoenix, those same candy bars jumped from $6.99 in May to $11.49 this week.

It hasn’t gone unnoticed. Thirty-five percent of Americans say candy is more expensive this year, and 57% say they’ll spend less on candy because of higher chocolate prices, according to a “Trick-or-Treat-onomics” survey by the financial services firm Empower.

Of those who do buy candy to hand out, 38% said they look for sales, coupons or bulk deals, 22% buy their Halloween candy before October to spread out the cost, and 31% buy extra, “knowing they’ll eat it themselves,” the survey found. Still, 35% plan to splurge on full-size candy bars this year.

A separate LendingTree survey found that 33% of consumers plan to skip buying candy this year as they cut back on Halloween spending because of financial uncertainty.

Commodity prices have something to do with the trend. Cocoa futures peaked last December near $12,565 a metric ton. They’ve fallen 49% since then, but the catch is that the Halloween chocolates on store shelves now were likely made in the spring—“when the market was at considerably higher price levels,” Ganes said.

She told Barron’s in April, when cocoa prices were at $8,000 a metric ton, that production from the cocoa-growing regions in West Africa had declined for the third straight year.

Too-dry or too-wet conditions in cocoa bean-growing regions has meant that candy prices that used to fluctuate by 2.5% to 4% a year, for example, jumped by 9.8% in September, compared with the previous September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Earlier this year, Hershey said it expects cocoa costs to keep rising in 2026 despite its commodity price hedging practices. In May, the maker of Kisses, Kit Kats, and Reese’s peanut butter cups announced higher prices across its entire U.S. confection portfolio to reflect the “cocoa inflation” it has absorbed in recent years, saying that would improve its adjusted gross margins this year and would restore adjusted gross margins by more than 5% in 2026.

Tariffs may be a secondary issue. Cocoa beans aren’t grown in the U.S., and must be imported from the few places in the world that do grow them. That makes for pricing uncertainty for chocolate companies like Hershey and M&M Mars.

Jonathan Ernest, an assistant professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University’s Weatherhead School of Management, said tariffs on some of those imports put them at a disadvantage to competitors in Europe, meaning that in some cases, “it might be cheaper to import the chocolate bars from other countries that didn’t have those import costs.”

Hershey said this summer it expects full-year tariff costs of $170 million to $180 million, but CFO Steven Voskuil noted at the time that the company was hoping for tariff relief as trade negotiations continue.

Carly Schildhaus, spokesperson for the National Confectioners Association trade group, told Barron’s that there is hope that consumers will still stock their pantries. Halloween is one of the four major U.S. chocolate-buying holidays, along with Valentine’s Day, Easter, and the winter holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah.

“Consumers view chocolate and candy differently from other foods: people in the U.S. enjoy chocolate and candy 2-3 times per week,” Schildhaus said. “Even as consumers face higher prices for food, they continue to leave room in their budgets for chocolate and candy, meaning that the category is strong, vibrant—and growing.”

Retail Halloween chocolate and candy sales hit $7.4 billion last year, up 2.2% from 2023, and represented about 18% of all confectionery retail sales in 2024. Research company Circana projects Halloween confectionary sales to grow 3% this year.

Case Western’s Ernest says some spending will likely continue because “it’s hard for people to remember how much they paid for this giant bag of candy last year,” and they usually throw it in the cart along with their other groceries.

Ernest expects that people will still buy candy for Halloween even if it’s pricier. Perhaps they will cut back on the amount of chocolate in the bowl, or put up a sign that says “Take one per child.”

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com