Healthcare Earnings Are Coming. 4 Big Questions for CVS, Humana, Merck, UnitedHealth, and More.

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As an avalanche of healthcare earnings arrives this week, the sector is in an extraordinary funk: The S&P 500 Health Care Sector index, which tracks the biggest healthcare stocks in the U.S., is down 9% over the past 12 months, significantly trailing the broader S&P 500, which is up 17%.

Much of that pain has come from the various blowups of the big managed-care stocks, and the S&P 500 Managed Health Care Sub-Industry Index is down 50% over the same period.

But it’s not just managed care that’s suffering. Drug stocks are down, too: The NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical index is down 9% over the past 12 months, while the SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund, which tracks the biotech sector, is down around 14%.

Some of the most important stocks in the sector report their second-quarter earnings this week. UnitedHealth Group and Merck report on Tuesday, Humana and AbbVie on Wednesday, Bristol Myers Squibb and CVS Health on Thursday, and Moderna on Friday. Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Pfizer will report earnings next week.

Here are five big questions heading into what’s going to be a frantic couple of weeks for healthcare investors.

Can New Management Rescue UnitedHealth Group?

UnitedHealth, the managed-care behemoth, pulled its full-year earnings guidance in May as its CEO, Andrew Witty, stepped down in favor of Stephen Helmsley, who led the company from 2006 through 2017.

The year has been an epically bad one for UnitedHealth: Amid troubles with the its Medicare Advantage business, the company slashed guidance in April, leading to a startling 27% selloff over two days.

The big question now is where Helmsely will put the refreshed full-year guidance. In April, the company had said to expect adjusted 2025 earnings of between $26 and $26.50 per share, down from $27.66 in 2024. That guidance has been pulled, and the current FactSet consensus estimate is far lower, at $20.64.

In a note on July 15, Leerink Partners analyst Whit Mayo wrote that investors generally expect the guidance to land between $18 and $19.

Expect lots of attention on the numbers when UnitedHealth reports on Tuesday morning, as investors reset their expectations.

Can Pharma Handle the Tariffs?

The long-threatened sector-specific drug tariffs are back in the news after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that pharmaceuticals will be subject to a tariff separate from the 15% levy on most imports from the European Union. Wall Street has become more or less inured to the threat of pharma tariffs, in part because Trump’s months of warning have given drug companies ample time to stockpile supplies at current rates. Still, expect executives to face a lot of questions about tariff expectations over the coming days.

Will CVS Maintain Its Winning Streak?

CVS is one of the few good-news stories in healthcare this year. After a very rough stretch that started back in 2021, the stock is up 35% so far this year. There’s been a bit of a pullback in recent weeks: As of the end of June, CVS had been up 53.7% in 2025.

The problems that have weighed on CVS shares haven’t disappeared. There are still challenges in the Medicare Advantage business and big questions about the future of its retail pharmacy chain. But the company has a new management team, and investors have seen it as a relatively cheap stock on the road to recovery.

Will Pharma Fix Its Patent Problems?

The big issue for the pharma stocks is, as always, patent expirations. They’re coming for Merck, which is set to lose exclusivity on Keytruda in 2028, for Bristol, which will lose exclusivity on Eliquis and Opdivo, and for Pfizer, which has a long list of expirations arriving soon.

The companies have been building toward answers to their patent problems for years, some with more success than others. Pfizer, which trades at eight times earnings expected over the next 12 months, according to FactSet, has struggled to get investors to buy into its plans. Merck, which trades at nine times earnings expected over the next 12 months, just announced a $10 billion deal for a lung disease biotech to help fill out its portfolio.

Executives will lay out their plans for growing through the impending expirations. It’s up to investors to decide whether they believe them.

Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at josh.nathan-kazis@barrons.com