Holiday Online Sales to Rise as AI Shakes Up Shopping: Adobe

Cyber Week is expected to bring the deepest discounts of the holiday season. (Dreamstime)

Key Points

• US online holiday sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion, a 5.3% increase from 2024, driven by competitive discounts.
• Cyber Week sales are forecast to hit $43.7 billion, up 6.3% year over year, contributing over 17% of total holiday spending.
• Generative AI is expected to significantly influence shopping, with AI traffic to retail sites predicted to rise 520% year over year.

American consumers are poised to go on an online shopping spree this holiday season as intense competition and new technology such as artificial intelligence offer ways to save money.

A new forecast by Adobe Analytics predicts that U.S. online sales will hit $253.4 billion this holiday season—the period from Nov. 1 through the end of the year—up 5.3% from the same period in 2024.

The company bases its prediction on an analysis of data from more than a trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, looking at some 100 million stock-keeping units, or unique codes assigned to specific products.

Adobe expects “competitive discounts” this season as retailers battle over tightly budgeted consumer dollars. It says price cuts will range on average from 18% for furniture and appliances to 28% for electronics.

Adobe’s data suggest that people will likely take advantage of the sales to buy more expensive items they may have been putting off. It indicates that sales of electronics, furniture, and apparel will account for a little over half of online spending this season.

Cyber Week, the five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, will likely bring the deepest discounts of the season and will continue to be a main contributor to overall sales as consumers look for the best deals. Cyber Week will drive $43.7 billion in sales, up 6.3% year over year and making up a little over 17% of total spending this season, Adobe forecasts.

Consumers are looking for greater flexibility in managing their budgets this holiday season, and are experimenting with new tools on that front. Online sales using buy-now, pay-later tools will increase 11% from 2024 to $20.2 billion, Adobe predicts.

Generative artificial intelligence will also play a bigger role this season.

“Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, becoming a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase,” Adobe said.

Adobe expects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites, or the number of shoppers clicking on links suggested by AI chatbots, to rise 520% year over year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. The 2024 holiday season was the first one in which AI played a significant role in driving web traffic, Adobe said, with traffic surging 1,300%.

An Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers found that over a third reported using AI to shop online. Main uses of AI included researching purchases, product recommendations, finding deals, and gift inspiration.

OpenAI, ChatGPT’s parent company, is leaning into the trend. Last week, the company announced it was letting U.S. shoppers complete purchases directly on the chatbot’s platform. The rollout began with Etsy , and will soon expand to include over a million Shopify vendors, OpenAI said.

While Adobe’s forecast only encompasses sales made in November and December, the holiday season has already unofficially started. Many retailers are holding multiday promotions this week, headlined by Amazon.com’s Prime Big Deal Days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Americans are expected to spend $9 billion online on those days, up 6.2% year over year, Adobe projects.

Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com