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There’s No Inflation Report Today. But Here’s What the Experts Think.

Nov 13, 2025 00:01:00 -0500 by Megan Leonhardt | #Economics

Consumer price index inflation data for October won’t be released on Thursday, because the government shutdown stopped all data collection. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Key Points

Economists are betting that prices didn’t pick up much in October, but it could be weeks before they know for sure.

The government shutdown is set to end this week, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will need some time to measure inflation after the latest, record-breaking lapse in federal funding. That means the October consumer price index won’t be released as expected on Thursday. Instead, the release will likely be delayed until early or mid-December, according to economists’ projections.

Still, the data available indicate that inflation levels largely held steady in October. Economists surveyed by FactSet estimate that inflation rose 0.2% over the month, translating to a gain of 3% year over year. While there’s no significant acceleration expected for October, CPI inflation is still running a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.

That makes it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to justify further interest-rate cuts—especially when officials likely will still be missing key economic indicators at their Dec. 9-10 policy meeting.

October’s projected price growth would be a touch slower than the 0.3% month-over-month rate in September, though it would match September’s annual pace of 3%. The BLS released the September CPI measure during the government shutdown so that the Social Security Administration could make the necessary annual calculations for cost of living increases.

Core inflation, which also rose by 3% year over year in September, is expected to remain at that pace in October as well. The core measure, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs, is expected to rise 0.3% month over month in October, an acceleration from the September’s 0.2% monthly pace.

In the absence of government data, economists are heavily monitoring the alternative data, though that is more limited for inflation. Data from PriceStats showed that inflation’s upward trend stalled somewhat in October, with a 0.2% monthly rise. The firm produces a monthly measure of price growth by using web-scraping technology to monitor prices of millions of online product sales. While the PriceStats series tends to be lower than the government’s CPI readings, it still parallels the metric’s overall trajectory.

PriceStats data revealed that household equipment, furniture, and electronics prices were all firmer in October, likely due to the impact of rising tariffs. Food prices were also higher than normal last month, though that was largely offset by lower transportation prices.

Similarly, the Adobe Digital Price Index showed that prices rose only 0.04% in October. That’s the second smallest October increase in the 12-year history of the series, according to UBS economist Alan Detmeister. That’s compared with the 0.08% increase recorded in October 2024.

“It is far too soon to know if the slowing back to last year’s pace is a sign that tariff pass-through is moderating or if it is one-month noise,” Detmeister writes.

Economists will likely have to wait until mid-December to get the October measure of CPI inflation. Once the government reopens, it will likely take several weeks to resume data collection and processing.

The month’s inflation reading also presents a number of challenges for the BLS since the shutdown cut off data collection for the entire month.

“CPI data are different because they’re usually collected at the time by BLS field workers. In October and early November, those prices simply weren’t collected,” says Sam Coffin, economist with Morgan Stanley.

Some prices can be recreated, he says, and perhaps more are saved electronically than used to be. But during the 16-day government shutdown in 2013, Coffin points out that the BLS eventually reported it obtained only 75% of the month’s usual data.

“With a four-week shutdown, the yield will be that much less—maybe 50% of the usual data,” he estimates.

Additionally, some of the prices are collected for the CPI only every two months. That means the missing October data collection could result in not only a lower-quality report for that month, but also for November and potentially December as well.

“It won’t be until the January report (published in February) that we’re getting a survey as good or bad as the usual ones are,” Coffin says.

That will, of course, add significant uncertainty around assumptions of inflation’s trajectory in the coming months and make Fed policymakers’ rate policy decisions even more precarious.

Write to Megan Leonhardt at megan.leonhardt@barrons.com