NYSE Owner to Take $2 Billion Stake in Polymarket. Intercontinental Exchange Stock Rises.

Intercontinental Exchange is investing up to $2 billion in the prediction market Polymarket. (NYSE)

Key Points

• Intercontinental Exchange will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the prediction market at approximately $8 billion.
• ICE will become the global distributor of Polymarket’s event data, offering sentiment indicators to traders and stock brokers.
• Polymarket, which previously barred U.S. users, is preparing to re-enter the U.S. market following a regulatory ‘green light.’

The owner of the New York Stock Exchange is getting in on a different type of market.

Intercontinental Exchange , or ICE, announced Tuesday that it will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket in a cash deal that values the prediction market at around $8 billion.

As part of the agreement, ICE will become the global distributor of Polymarket’s event data, providing customers like traders and stock brokers with “sentiment indicators” from Polymarket users. The investment isn’t expected to impact ICE’s 2025 financial results, the company said.

ICE stock was rising 4% to $165.45 in premarket trading Tuesday. Shares have risen 6.7% this year as of Monday’s close.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to wager on the outcomes of events in politics, pop culture, sports, and more. On Tuesday, peer-to-peer prediction contracts were available to trade on everything from the winner of the World Series to when the government shutdown will end.

“There are opportunities across markets which ICE together with Polymarket can uniquely serve and we are excited about where this investment can take us,” said ICE CEO Jeffrey C. Sprecher.

Polymarket barred U.S.-based users after a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which had alleged the company was operating an unregistered exchange. Polymarket didn’t admit to any wrongdoing in its original settlement.

Regulators have taken a softer stance toward prediction markets under the Trump administration, however. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said in a social media post last month that the CFTC had given the company “the green light” to return to the U.S. A statement on the site saisd trading will “soon be available for US traders.”

Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com