NYSE Owner to Take $2 Billion Stake in Polymarket. Intercontinental Exchange Stock Rises.

Intercontinental Exchange is investing up to $2 billion in the prediction market Polymarket. (NYSE)

Key Points

• Intercontinental Exchange will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the prediction market at approximately $8 billion.
• ICE will become the global distributor of Polymarket’s event data, offering sentiment indicators to traders and stock brokers.
• Polymarket, which previously barred U.S. users, is preparing to re-enter the U.S. market following a regulatory ‘green light.’

The owner of the New York Stock Exchange is betting on a different type of market.

Intercontinental Exchange , or ICE, announced Tuesday that it will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, the prediction-market operator, in a cash deal that values it at around $8 billion.

As part of the agreement, ICE will become the global distributor of Polymarket’s event data, providing customers like traders and stockbrokers with “sentiment indicators” from Polymarket users. The investment isn’t expected to impact ICE’s 2025 financial results, the company said.

The pair also agreed to work together on future initiatives around tokenization, which refers to digitizing equities so they can trade over blockchain technology rather than traditional exchanges.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to wager on the outcomes of events in politics, pop culture, sports, and more. On Tuesday, peer-to-peer prediction contracts were available to trade on everything from the winner of the World Series to when the government shutdown will end.

ICE stock was rising 1.9% to $162.06 on Tuesday. Shares have risen 6.7% this year as of Monday’s close.

“There are opportunities across markets which ICE together with Polymarket can uniquely serve and we are excited about where this investment can take us,” said ICE CEO Jeffrey C. Sprecher.

Polymarket barred U.S.-based users after a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which had alleged the company was operating an unregistered exchange. Polymarket didn’t admit to any wrongdoing in its original settlement.

Regulators have taken a softer stance toward prediction markets under the Trump administration, however. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said in a social media post last month that the CFTC had given the company “the green light” to return to the U.S. A statement on the site said trading will “soon be available for US traders.”

President Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor to the Polymarket, in which his venture-capital firm recently invested.

Multiple media outlets reported in June that Polymarket was nearing a $200 million funding round led by Founders Fund, billionaire Peter Thiel’s venture-capital firm. That round would have valued Polymarket at $1 billion, according to reports.

Given this recent valuation, the price tag ICE is paying “seems high,” said Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley in a research note Tuesday. However, the firm liked that ICE was putting itself at the center of “two of the fastest-growing trends in the exchange & trading space” in prediction markets and tokenization.

Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating and a $202 price target for ICE stock.

Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com