Jobs, Inflation, Salesforce, Broadcom, Macy’s, and More to Watch This Week

(Barron’s)

Last week, the S&P 500 hit its 19th and 20th record closes on the year, before giving back some of those gains on Friday to end the week down 01.%. Following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, expectations for multiple interest-rate cuts in the coming months have buoyed risk assets. Those hopes will be put to test after the long Labor Day weekend.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report, to be released on Friday, can all but make an interest-rate cut official at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting if jobs growth continues to be weak. Powell has called the current labor market “curious,” as it is simultaneously seeing low jobs growth and muted layoffs effectively keep the unemployment rate low by historical standards.

Other economic data to be released this week will include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The BLS will also release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Wednesday.

A strong second-quarter earnings season winds down this week, with two tech heavyweights reporting. Salesforce will announce results on Wednesday. The cloud-based software company’s shares are down more than 20% this year due to fears that artificial intelligence will eat into margins, but those fears look to be more than priced in. Broadcom will release earnings on Thursday. Shares of the AI chip supplier are up 28% this year.

Monday 9/1

Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.

Tuesday 9/2

NIO and Zscaler release quarterly results.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for August. Consensus estimate is for a 48.9 reading, roughly one point more than in July.

The Census Bureau reports construction spending data for July. Total construction spending is expected to decline 0.2% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.13 trillion.

Wednesday 9/3

American Eagle Outfitters , C3.ai , Campbell’s, Credo Technology Group Holding, Dollar Tree, Figma, Gitlab, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Macy’s, PagerDuty, and Salesforce announce earnings.

The BLS releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 7.34 million job openings on the last business day of July, 110,000 fewer than in June.

The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions from the 12 regional banks.

Thursday 9/4

Broadcom, Copart, Ciena, DocuSign, Guidewire Software, lululemon athletica, Phreesia, Samsara, and UiPath report quarterly results.

ADP releases its National Employment Report for August. The consensus call is for a 83,000 increase in private-sector employment, 21,000 fewer than in July.

ISM releases its Services PMI for August. Expectations are for a 50.9 reading, slightly higher than in July.

Friday 9/5

The BLS releases the jobs report for August. Economists forecast a 75,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, 2,000 more than in July. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3% from 4.2%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in late August at the Jackson Hole symposium tilted the Federal Open Market Committee concerns toward a weakening labor market as opposed to accelerating inflation. Another report showing weak jobs growth would all but cement an interest-rate cut at the FOMC’s mid-September monetary-policy meeting.

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