Job Revisions, Inflation, New iPhones, GameStop, Oracle, and More to Watch This Week

(Barron’s)

The S&P 500 ended last week basically flat as a weaker-than-expected jobs report was initially cheered by investors as a harbinger of more aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The index hit an intraday record before selling off as Wall Street considered the implications of a labor market that added only 29,000 jobs a month from June through August.

This week, we’ll get an update to employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will release its preliminary revision of jobs growth for April 2024 through March 2025. Downward revisions are expected and, if severe enough, could put the prospect of a jumbo rate cut in play at the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16-17 monetary policy meeting.

A quarter-point rate cut is all but assured, and there is a 12% chance of a half-point cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

The BLS will also release the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday. Inflation data has taken a back seat to concerns over a weakening labor market since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s late-August speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo.

On the earnings front, Oracle will report quarterly results on Tuesday, and Adobe and Kroger will do so on Thursday.

Monday 9/8

Casey’s General Stores reports first-quarter fiscal-2026 results.

Tuesday 9/9

AeroVironment, Core & Main, GameStop , Oracle, Rubrik, SailPoint, and Synopsys release earnings.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for August. The consensus estimate is for a 100.5 reading, about even with the July figure.

The BLS releases its preliminary revision to employment data for the 12 months ending March 2025. Economists at Wells Fargo suggest that a net loss of 475,000 to 790,000 jobs is a reasonable estimate. That would put monthly jobs growth for those 12 months between 83,000 to 110,000 compared with the 149,000 currently reported. If the labor market was in fact much weaker than previously thought, the Fed might have to cut interest rates faster to support the economy.

Apple will hold an event at its headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. The company is expected to unveil new iPhone 17 models, including the ultrathin iPhone 17 Air. There could be announcements for an Apple Watch 11 and AirPods Pro 3 as well.

Wednesday 9/10

Chewy announces second-quarter fiscal 2025 results.

The BLS releases the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 3.3% year-over-year increase, even with that of July. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is seen rising 3.5%, two-tenths of a percentage point less than previously.

Thursday 9/11

Adobe and Kroger hold conference calls to discuss earnings.

The BLS releases the consumer price index for August. The consensus estimate is for a 2.9% year-over-year increase, two-tenths of a percentage point more than in July. The core CPI is expected to increase 3.1%, matching the July data.

Friday 9/12

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment survey for September. Economists forecast a 59.3 reading, one point more than in August, but well below historical levels. Consumer expectations for the year-ahead inflation were 4.8% in the August survey.

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